EMCC European Monitoring Centre on Change

Business trends survey (including employment forecasts)

Lithuania
Phase: Anticipation
Type:
  • Provision of labour market information
Sidst ændret: 17 July, 2020
Lokalt navn:

Statistinis verslo tendencijų tyrimas (tame tarpe - darbuotojų skaičiaus prognozė)

Engelsk navn:

Business trends survey (including employment forecasts)

Coverage/Eligibility

This survey covers the manufacturing, construction, trade and services sectors. The objective of the survey is to collect data (opinions) from enterprises on the economic changes and to estimate confidence indicators which describe changes and trends of specific economic activities (including employment forecasts). The population of the survey covers all joint stock companies, private limited companies, state and municipal enterprises, branches of foreign companies, individual companies and cooperative companies which have carried out their economic activity in the reporting year.

Main characteristics

This survey of business trends collects the opinions of companies’ executives regarding past, present and future changes in their economic activities and expectations. The survey has been conducted on a monthly basis since 1993. Different questions on the current economic situation and changes (including future changes) in the enterprise are posed to the enterprises according to the type of their economic activity. Respondents need to choose between three possible answers to each question: positive, neutral and negative. The collected information covers a range of indicators, including previous/current/future (forecasted) turnover, production demand, prices, competitiveness and number of employees. The survey also includes employers' forecasts on employment developments (increase/decrease/no change) up to three months in the future. The manager of the enterprise is the person in charge to fill in the questionnaire.

Results from this survey are used to build four confidence indicators which are published on a monthly basis, in particular:

  1. The retail trade confidence indicator is an arithmetic average of the balances of a change in the business situation, future tendency for the business situation, and inverted stocks.
  2. The confidence indicator for services is an arithmetic average of the balances of a change in the business situation, change in demand for services, and future tendency for demand.
  3. The confidence indicator for industry is an arithmetic average of the balances of the level of demand for production, future tendency for production, and inverted stocks.
  4. The confidence indicator for construction is an arithmetic average of the balances of demand for construction works and the forecast number of employees.

Balance is the indicator obtained by taking the difference between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable answers given to questions in a survey questionnaire. Balances can take values from –100 when all respondents choose extreme negative answers, to +100 when all respondents choose the positive answer option. Balance changes over different months reflect tendency of the phenomenon.

The truncation method is used for sampling. The sample size is approximately 3,400 respondents selected from undertakings  which are actually operating in the reporting period. The selected undertakings should represent the type of economic activity in accordance with NACE rev 2, two-digit level (three-digit level for the industrial and trade sectors).

Funding

  • National funds

Involved actors

National government
Funding. Statistics Lithuania is established and funded by the government of the Republic of Lithuania.
Anden
Conducted by Statistics Lithuania.

Effectiveness

Results of the survey are regularly presented in the mass media and are rather visible for businesses, policymakers and society. They are used as a source of information regarding businesses' expectations and possible developments in the economy and the labour market. In practice, this survey is not used in the context of anticipating change and restructuring, although it would be a good instrument for this purpose.

Strengths

The survey gathers reliable information on an ongoing basis. It also provides the opportunity to evaluate possible business developments and the attitudes of companies’ executives regarding employment figures in different economic sectors.

Weaknesses

From the description of the methodology of the survey, it could be derived that its main weaknesses relates to its short-term nature, the fact that it is hardly ever used in pursuing economic and social policy, and the fact that it is based on subjective assessments.

Eksempler

The results of the latest business trends survey in Lithuania (April 2020) could be found at: https://osp.stat.gov.lt/informaciniai-pranesimai?articleId=7526622
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