EMCC European Monitoring Centre on Change

Labour market forecasting

Phase: Anticipation
  • Provision of labour market information
Zuletzt geändert: 29 June, 2021
Ursprünglicher Name:

Darbo rinkos prognozės

Englischer Name:

Labour market forecasting


This instrument covers the sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, construction and services.

Main characteristics

Forecasts of labour force employment have been produced by the Employment Services under the Ministry of Social Security and Labour of the Republic of Lithuania (LES) (until 1 October 2018 - Lithuanian Labour Exchange) on an annual basis since 1995.

The purpose of the forecasting is to project skills demand, changes in the demand for skills by occupations, economic activities, size of undertakings, and to assess the need for active labour market policy measures, employment enhancement programmes and labour market services. LES’s labour market forecasting is based on the results obtained from economic analyses, demographic analyses, skills supply and demand indicators, employers’ responses to the questions on business prospects, job creation and liquidation in undertakings, as well as on relevant information available in the public domain on changes anticipated in the labour market.

The main focus of this instrument is on employers' views on business prospects. The employers’ survey covers Lithuanian undertakings which have job vacancies registered in the LES’s system. A random selection method is used to select employers for their inclusion in the survey sample. A standardised questionnaire is used, addressing the following subjects: existing and predicted demand for products; investment expectations; existing and predicted number of employees; figures regarding intended redundancies and recruitment; and the need for vocational training. Findings are presented at regional and national level.

A Job Opportunity Barometer is prepared every year for the next year, based on employer interviews and LES expert opinion. It shows occupations for professionals and skilled workers, as well as employees in the service sector, where employment opportunities in Lithuania are high, medium and low. Based on the barometer, an interactive map of occupations is drawn up every year, indicating the most in-demand and the least in-demand occupations by counties and municipalities of the country.


  • National funds

Involved actors

National government
Public employment services
Forecasts are conducted by the Lithuanian Employment Services (LES).


The results of the survey are mainly used for current and future job seekers choosing their occupation. Nonetheless, they are rarely used for economic and labour market policy development or for the anticipation of restructuring. Evaluations of the effectiveness of the measure are not available.


This survey provides the opportunity to examine employers' intentions regarding the recruitment and the dismissal of staff. This analysis can be done by different economic sectors, company size, and distinguishing between public and private sector. The survey also highlights which occupations will be the most and the least in demand in the forthcoming year.

In addition, the use of two different sources of information - labour market trends data and interviews with employers - increases the reliability of the study findings.


There is no official information on the frequency of the use of the survey results, however the results of the survey seem to be rarely used for economic and labour market policy purposes or for the anticipation of restructuring.


The latest results of the forecast might be found at: https://uzt.lt/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/baro6.pdf https://uzt.lt/darbo-rinka/profesiju-zemelapis/ https://uzt.lt/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Lietuvos-u%C5%BEimtumo-2019-m.-tendencijos-ir-ateities-prognoz%C4%97s.pdf
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