Future of manufacturing in Europe

Trade scenario: Employment implications in Europe of a large increase in global tariffs

Report
Veröffentlicht
14 März 2019
Formate

Zusammenfassung

Protectionism is on the rise. This scenario estimates the potential impact of a significant increase in tariffs in the world’s major trading blocs. The analysis is carried out using the E3ME macroeconometric model, which provides information on sectoral impacts, together with the Warwick Labour Market Extension model for occupational analysis. Further analysis of the employment developments in Europe is undertaken using Eurofound’s European Jobs Monitor. As predicted by economic theory, tariffs do impact negatively on both GDP and employment. The most negative impact is in the blocs that have a trade surplus. The EU-wide decline in GDP translates to a 0.3% fall in employment in the EU28 by 2030 compared to the baseline.

  • Full report

    Number of Pages: 
    26
    Reference No: 
    FOMEEF18008
    ISBN: 
    978-92-897-1838-7
    Catalogue: 
    TJ-04-19-124-EN-N
    DOI: 
    10.2806/991678
    Catalogue info

    Trade scenario: Employment implications in Europe of a large increase in global tariffs

    Protectionism is on the rise. This scenario estimates the potential impact of a significant increase in tariffs in the world’s major trading blocs. The analysis is carried out using the E3ME macroeconometric model, which provides information on sectoral impacts, together with the Warwick Labour Market Extension model for occupational analysis. Further analysis of the employment developments in Europe is undertaken using Eurofound’s European Jobs Monitor. As predicted by economic theory, tariffs do impact negatively on both GDP and employment.

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Part of the series

  • Manufacturing employment outlook

    This publication series explores scenarios for the future of manufacturing. The employment implications (number of jobs by sector, occupation, wage profile, and task content) under various possible scenarios are examined. The scenarios focus on various possible developments in global trade and energy policies and technological progress and run to 2030.

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