Manufacturing employment outlook

This report looks into the impact of the accelerated application of automation and digitisation technologies on the wage and tasks structure of employment in Europe. Despite the high level of uncertainty of these projections, the contribution of this report is to extend the analysis beyond just the technologically feasible substitution of workers by machines by incorporating some economics to the analysis.

Protectionism is on the rise. This scenario estimates the potential impact of a significant increase in tariffs in the world’s major trading blocs. The analysis is carried out using the E3ME macroeconometric model, which provides information on sectoral impacts, together with the Warwick Labour Market Extension model for occupational analysis. Further analysis of the employment developments in Europe is undertaken using Eurofound’s European Jobs Monitor. As predicted by economic theory, tariffs do impact negatively on both GDP and employment.

This report explores the potential employment and economic impacts of an EU transition to a low-carbon economy by 2030 – on the EU, and on other regions of the world. It analyses the impacts across sectors and occupations, with a particular focus on manufacturing.