Protectionism is on the rise. This scenario estimates the potential impact of a significant increase in tariffs in the world’s major trading blocs. The analysis is carried out using the E3ME macroeconometric model, which provides information on sectoral impacts, together with the Warwick Labour Market Extension model for occupational analysis. Further analysis of the employment developments in Europe is undertaken using Eurofound’s European Jobs Monitor. As predicted by economic theory, tariffs do impact negatively on both GDP and employment. The most negative impact is in the blocs that have a trade surplus. The EU-wide decline in GDP translates to a 0.3% fall in employment in the EU28 by 2030 compared to the baseline.
This publication series explores scenarios for the future of manufacturing. The employment implications (number of jobs by sector, occupation, wage profile, and task content) under various possible scenarios are examined. The scenarios focus on various possible developments in global trade and energy policies and technological progress and run to 2030.
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