The economic performance indicator estimates the probability of a recession within the next two to three months. A recession is considered to be a considerable decrease of industrial production, whereby different levels are possible (such as a decrease of production by at least 1% for 5 months or a decrease of 0.5% for 10 months). The probabilities are calculated on the basis of data combinations which in the past resulted in recessions.

The data are derived from the financial markets as well as indicators of the real economy, such as interest spreads or order levels. Results are published monthly by the 'Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung' (Macroeconomic Policy Institute, IMK).