EMCC European Monitoring Centre on Change

ERM quarterly

43 items found

The quarterly summary publication has been discontinued after the publication of the January 2017 issue. It will be replaced by regular articles on important ERM restructuring cases.

  • 26 January 2017 | ERM Quarterly

    In the 1990s, Alan Greenspan talked of ‘irrational exuberance’ in the stock markets. Unfounded optimism had driven share prices up to values that no rational analysis of company or country performance could justify. At the end of 2016, the Financial Times marked the end of the year by talking of ‘irrational equanimity’.

  • 27 October 2016 | ERM Quarterly

    The IMF, in its October World economic outlook, has revised forecasts for global growth downwards to 3.1% in 2016. Sub-par growth in the developed world economies risks perpetuating itself, according to the Fund.

  • 27 July 2016 | ERM Quarterly

    The principal political event of the quarter has been the decision of the UK electorate in favour of ‘Brexit’ from the European Union in a referendum held on 23 June. The outcome was a surprise and went against the counsel of most economists, policymakers and international organisations as well as the majority of elected UK politicians.

  • 26 April 2016 | ERM Quarterly

    In its latest World economic outlook (April 2016), the IMF has again lowered global growth forecasts for the coming year. Two factors cited for this more downbeat assessment are weak growth in developing economies, notably China, and ‘political discord’ in other major economies.

  • 20 January 2016 | ERM Quarterly

    In the last quarter of 2015, better economic data in the EU was overshadowed by increasing anxiety about the potential impact of declining growth and rising instability in developing economies. Aggregate unemployment rates in the Union are in their first sustained downward path since the global financial crisis began: in the EU28, unemployment stands at 9.2%; in the euro zone, at 10.5%.

  • 21 October 2015 | ERM Quarterly

    Economic anxiety has resurfaced during the summer months and threatens to undermine the emergent European recovery. All of the things that should be helping to boost growth – ECB quantitative easing, the weak euro, low interest rates, cheap oil – appear to be having limited effect in the face of a slowdown in developing economies.

  • 29 July 2015 | ERM Quarterly

    In a context of globally slow growth since the financial crisis, the EU and in particular the euro zone economies have underperformed relative to other major developed-world economies. Output in the euro zone remained lower in the first quarter of 2015 than seven years earlier, and three million fewer people are working in the EU. The post-crisis output gap between the EU and the US now amounts to around eight percentage points.

  • 28 April 2015 | ERM Quarterly

    Economic recovery in the EU has some positive tailwinds at last. These come in three forms; reduced oil prices are a significant boon to the EU as it is a major net importer; the ECB’s decision to adopt unconventional monetary policy options previously implemented in other developed economies (quantitative easing) appears to be providing positive stimulus; and this has contributed to lowering the value of the euro against other currencies, boosting demand for European exports.

  • 02 February 2015 | ERM Quarterly

    Dramatic recent oil price declines have seen deflation take hold in the EU. General price levels in December 2014 were 0.2% lower than a year earlier. This is further evidence of a tentative European economic recovery that appears to be running out of steam. Growth forecasts for the EU have been trimmed to 1.1% in 2015 after growth failed to reach even 1% in 2014.

  • 28 October 2014 | ERM Quarterly

    Recent data has cast doubt on the strength of the recovery. In its October 2014 World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts a euro zone growth rate of 0.8% in 2014 (down from a forecast growth rate of 1.1% in April 2014). Factors contributing to the poorer outlook are slowdowns in the US, Japan and in the two biggest EU economies – Germany and France – as well as increased geopolitical risks arising from events in Ukraine, Syria and the wider Arab world.

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