Scenarios for the future of manufacturing

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Background

There are various European and global developments that can impact upon the future of manufacturing. While the estimation of future developments is associated with appreciable uncertainty it is nevertheless useful to map out possible futures. The macroeconomic modelling will incorporate the trade relations in the global economy and requires an input-output framework in order to provide estimates of the impact of developments in manufacturing upon other sectors. It is also necessary to arrive at estimates of net demand, by also estimating job creation in order to replace retirement The model to be used is the E3ME model from Cambridge Econometrics as complemented by the EU Agency CEDEFOP. 

Objectives

The project will examine the employment implications of possible scenarios of relevance for the future of manufacturing. These will include developments in energy and trade policy and technology and investment. The model will generate forecasts by sector and occupation. Various classifications of jobs (occupations in sectors) as generated by the European Job Monitor will be applied in order to obtain some indication of how the structure of employment implied by various scenarios differs from the baseline. 

Outputs

The main outputs are five  reports on five different scenarios.

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