EMCC European Monitoring Centre on Change

IMK Economic Performance Indicator

Germany
Phase: Anticipation
Type:
  • Provision of labour market information
Last modified: 03 August, 2021
Native name:

IMK Konjunkturindikator

English name:

IMK Economic Performance Indicator

Coverage/Eligibility

Whole economy.

Main characteristics

The economic performance indicator estimates the probability of a recession within the next two to three months. A recession is considered to be a considerable decrease of industrial production, whereby different levels are possible (such as a decrease of production by at least 1% for 5 months or a decrease of 0.5% for 10 months). The probabilities are calculated on the basis of data combinations which in the past resulted in recessions.

The data are derived from the financial markets as well as indicators of the real economy, such as interest spreads or order levels. Results are published monthly by the 'Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung' (Macroeconomic Policy Institute, IMK).

Funding

  • Trade union

Involved actors

Employer or employee organisations
The Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (Macroeconomic Policy Institute), which provides the indicator, is a body of the Hans-Böckler Foundation of the German Trade Union Federation.

Effectiveness

Data are used in a wide range of research projects.

Strengths

Data from the IMK Economic Performance Indicator are used in many research projects, such as 'Economic Policy Challenges 2015', 'Financial Market Stability in Times of Unconventionally Monetary Policy', 'Income Distribution and the Great Depression'.

Weaknesses

No information available.

Examples

A list of recent publications using data from the IMK Economic Performance Indicator is published on the IMK's website.
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