Promoting social cohesion and convergence

Spremljanje konvergence v Evropski uniji: pogled v preteklost za premik naprej – navzgor usmerjena konvergenca v času kriz

Flagship report
Posodobljeno
27 April 2022
Objavljeno
20 December 2021
pdf
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Executive summary in 22 languages
Prenesi
Avtor(-ji): 
Mascherini, Massimiliano; Carstens, Jens; Maftei, Anamaria; Farrell, Sarah

Ključne ugotovitve

  • Gospodarska kriza (2008–2013) je imela pomemben negativen vpliv na navzgor usmerjeno konvergenco med državami članicami. Čeprav je bila gospodarska konvergenca hitro ponovno vzpostavljena, je na področju zaposlovanja in življenjskih pogojev do leta 2013 prevladoval trend navzdol usmerjene divergence, kar je jasno pokazalo, kako tesno sta družbena in gospodarska konvergenca povezani med seboj.
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  • Gospodarska kriza (2008–2013) je imela pomemben negativen vpliv na navzgor usmerjeno konvergenco med državami članicami. Čeprav je bila gospodarska konvergenca hitro ponovno vzpostavljena, je na področju zaposlovanja in življenjskih pogojev do leta 2013 prevladoval trend navzdol usmerjene divergence, kar je jasno pokazalo, kako tesno sta družbena in gospodarska konvergenca povezani med seboj.
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  • Čeprav so se številni družbeni kazalniki v obdobju okrevanja med letoma 2014 in 2019 začeli izboljševati in zbliževati, gospodarska kriza posamezna območja ni prizadela enakomerno. Medtem ko sta se srednja in vzhodna Evropa še naprej močno približevali vodilni severozahodni regiji, je južna Evropa vse bolj zaostajala v socialnem in gospodarskem pogledu.
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  • Med letoma 2008 in 2019 navzgor usmerjene konvergence na področju kakovosti upravljanja in institucij med državami članicami EU skoraj ni bilo. Med krizo zaradi covida-19 bo pomemben vidik zbliževanje na področju institucionalne kakovosti, ki bo omogočilo, da se v vzhodni Evropi gospodarska konvergenca preoblikuje v trajno družbeno konvergenco in da se v južni Evropi izboljšata obe vrsti konvergence.
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  • Odločni politični odzivi na pandemijo na evropski in nacionalni ravni so preprečili, da bi imela kriza še bolj uničujoče in neenakomerne posledice za evropske trge dela in življenjske pogoje v EU. Toda kriza zaradi covida-19 še ni povsem končana. Zato bo ključno, da nadaljujemo ta politična prizadevanja, zlasti v okviru digitalnega in zelenega prehoda, pri katerem bodo ustrezna politična orodja bistvena, da se prepreči nova divergenca vzdolž linij sever-vzhod in jug-zahod.
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  • Ključno bo celovito izvajanje načrtov evropskega instrumenta za okrevanje, konvergenca med državami članicami pa bo odvisna od stopnje usklajenosti med nacionalnimi načrti okrevanja in vizijo na ravni EU. Pripravljenost vlad, da se osredotočijo na nadnacionalne prednostne naloge, je priložnost za odpravo neenakosti, ki jih je povzročila pandemija covida-19, pomembna pa bo zlasti usklajenost na ravni Unije.
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Povzetek

Navzgor usmerjena konvergenca je središče projekta EU. Države članice in njihovi državljani se Uniji pridružijo zato, ker pričakujejo, da bo njihovo članstvo v njej vodilo k uravnoteženi gospodarski blaginji in družbenemu napredku med državami. Povečevanje razlik med državami članicami, do kakršnRead more

Navzgor usmerjena konvergenca je središče projekta EU. Države članice in njihovi državljani se Uniji pridružijo zato, ker pričakujejo, da bo njihovo članstvo v njej vodilo k uravnoteženi gospodarski blaginji in družbenemu napredku med državami. Povečevanje razlik med državami članicami, do kakršnega je prišlo med gospodarsko krizo v letih od 2008 do 2013, bi si lahko razlagali kot izdajo obljube EU in bi lahko postalo seme nezadovoljstva in razkroja. To vodilno poročilo predstavlja vrhunec raziskave Eurofounda o spremljanju konvergence v EU, ki se je začelo leta 2017. Opisuje spreminjajočo se dinamiko navzgor usmerjene konvergence v obdobju od leta 2008 do leta 2019, raziskuje kratkoročni vpliv pandemije covida-19 na evropska gospodarstva in družbe, skupaj z njenimi posledicami za konvergenco, ter razpravlja o dolgoročnih učinkih pandemije in prihodnosti navzgor usmerjene ekonomske in socialne konvergence v Evropi.

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  • Poročilo

    Last updated date: 
    26 Jan 2022
    Število strani: 
    120
    Referenčna št.: 
    EF21008
    ISBN: 
    978-92-897-2237-7
    Kataloška št.: 
    TJ-01-21-504-EN-N
    DOI: 
    10.2806/78744
    Permalink: 
    eurofound.link/ef21008
    Catalogue info

    Spremljanje konvergence v Evropski uniji: pogled v preteklost za premik naprej – navzgor usmerjena konvergenca v času kriz

    Avtor(-ji): 
    Mascherini, Massimiliano; Carstens, Jens; Maftei, Anamaria; Farrell, Sarah
    Topics: 
    Social policies; Spodbujanje socialne kohezije in konvergence; European Pillar of Social Rights; COVID-19; Spremljanje konvergence v Evropski uniji; Inequality

    Oblike

    Citiranje te publikacije: 

    Eurofound (2021), Monitoring convergence in the European Union: Looking backwards to move forward – Upward convergence through crises, Challenges and prospects in the EU series, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.

  • Executive summary

    Referenčna št.: 
    EF21008EN1
    Catalogue info

    Spremljanje konvergence v Evropski uniji: pogled v preteklost za premik naprej – navzgor usmerjena konvergenca v času kriz

    Avtor(-ji): 
    Eurofound

    Na voljo za prenos v 22 jezikih

    Prenesi

  • Working paper

  • Tables and graphs

    The flagship report contains the following list of tables and figures.

    List of tables

    Table 1: Overview of indicators
    Table 2: Drivers of employment in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table 3: Drivers of employment growth in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table 4: Summary of economic convergence trends in sigma, delta and beta convergence and at the regional level
    Table 5: Summary of social convergence trends in sigma, delta and beta convergence and at the regional level
    Table 6: Summary of institutional convergence trends in sigma, delta and beta convergence

    Table A1: Drivers of employment in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table A2: Drivers of employment growth in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table A3: Impact of unemployment changes on GDP per capita (regression coefficients), EU27, 2000–2019

    List of figures

    Figure 1: The three dimensions of convergence
    Figure 2: Sigma and delta convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 3: Unconditional beta convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 4: Regional quintile clusters of GDP per capita in PPS in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 5: Sigma and delta convergence in disposable household income per capita (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 6: Unconditional beta convergence in disposable household income per capita (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 7: Regional quintile clusters of disposable household income per capita in PPS in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 8: Sigma and delta convergence in income inequality (income quintile share ratio), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 9: Unconditional beta convergence in income inequality (income quintile share ratio), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 10: Sigma and delta convergence in monthly minimum wage (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 11: Unconditional beta convergence in monthly minimum wage (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 12: Sigma and delta convergence in the employment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 13: Unconditional beta convergence in the employment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 14: Regional quintile clusters of the employment rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 15: Sigma and delta convergence in the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 16: Unconditional beta convergence in the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 17: Regional quintile clusters of the unemployment rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 18: Sigma and delta convergence in the gender employment gap (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 19: Unconditional beta convergence in the gender employment gap (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 20: Regional quintile clusters of the gender employment gap in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 21: Sigma and delta convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 22: Unconditional beta convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 23: Regional quintile clusters of the youth NEET rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 24: Sigma and delta convergence in the early school leavers rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 25: Unconditional beta convergence in the early school leavers rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 26: Regional quintile clusters of the early school leavers rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 27: Sigma and delta convergence in the AROPE rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 28: Unconditional beta convergence in the AROPE rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 29: Sigma and delta convergence in unmet medical needs (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 30: Unconditional beta convergence in unmet medical needs (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 31: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI rule of law, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 32: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI rule of law, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 33: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI government effectiveness, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 34: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI government effectiveness, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 35: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI regulatory quality, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 36: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI regulatory quality, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 37: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI voice and accountability, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 38: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI voice and accountability, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 39: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI control of corruption, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 40: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI control of corruption, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 41: Sigma and delta convergence in the Ease of Doing Business score, EU27, 2010–2019
    Figure 42: Unconditional beta convergence in the Ease of Doing Business score, EU27, 2010–2019
    Figure 43: Regional clusters of the European Quality of Government Index score (EQI), EU NUTS 1 and 2, 2010 and 2017
    Figure 44: Employment rates in the previous year and annual growth rates by EU Member State, 2000–2019
    Figure 45: Employment growth in southern and central and eastern countries relative to western/northern Europe (regression coefficients plot)
    Figure 46: Summary of the regional leaders and laggards in the social dimension and cluster mobility in the economic dimension, EU NUTS 2, 2008–2019
    Figure 47: Relationship between GDP and unemployment in 2008–2009 (growth rates), EU27
    Figure 48: Relationship between GDP and unemployment in 2019–2020 (growth rates), EU27
    Figure 49: Actual versus predicted unemployment rate in 2020 (%), EU27
    Figure 50: SURE loans and the unemployment gap in 2020, EU27
    Figure 51: Unweighted average employment rate and projections to meet the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan 2030 target (%), EU27
    Figure 52: Unweighted average youth NEET rate and projections to meet the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan 2030 target (%), EU27
    Figure 53: Sigma convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2013–2020
    Figure 54: Change in GDP per capita (in PPS) by Member State (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 55: Unconditional beta convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 56: Percentage change in GDP per capita (in PPS), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 57: Sigma convergence in the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2013–2021 (monthly data: January 2020–May 2021)
    Figure 58: Change in unemployment rate by Member State (percentage points), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 59: Unconditional beta convergence of the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 60: Percentage point change in the unemployment rate, EU NUTS 2, 2019–2020
    Figure 61: Sigma convergence in the activity rate (%), EU27, 2013–2020 (quarterly data: Q4 2019–Q4 2020)
    Figure 62: Sigma convergence in labour market slack (%), EU27, 2013–2020 (quarterly data: Q4 2019–Q4 2020)
    Figure 63: Unconditional beta convergence in labour market slack (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 64: Estimated change in the at-risk-of-poverty rate, EU, 2019–2020
    Figure 65: Sigma convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2013–2020 (quarterly data: Q4 2019–Q4 2020)
    Figure 66: Unconditional beta convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 67: Degree of plausibility (on a scale of 1–10) of the health recovery scenarios as assessed by Eurofound experts
    Figure 68: Possible economic recovery scenarios
    Figure 69: Expected speed of economic recovery, EU27
    Figure 70: Experts’ opinions on the expected economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic (on a scale of 0–100)

Raziskave, ki so bile izvedene pred izstopom Združenega kraljestva iz Evropske unije 31. januarja 2020 in objavljene pozneje, lahko vključujejo podatke o 28 državah članicah EU. Po tem datumu je v raziskavah upoštevanih le 27 držav članic EU (EU-28 brez Združenega kraljestva), razen če ni določeno drugače.

Part of the series

  • Challenges and prospects in the EU

    Eurofound’s Flagship report series 'Challenges and prospects in the EU' comprise research reports that contain the key results of multiannual research activities and incorporate findings from different related research projects. Flagship reports are the major output of each of Eurofound’s strategic areas of intervention and have as their objective to contribute to current policy debates.

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