Background

There are various European and global developments that can impact upon the future of manufacturing. While the estimation of future developments is associated with appreciable uncertainty it is nevertheless useful to map out possible futures. The macroeconomic modelling will incorporate the trade relations in the global economy and requires an input-output framework in order to provide estimates of the impact of developments in manufacturing upon other sectors. It is also necessary to arrive at estimates of net demand, by also estimating job creation in order to replace retirement.

Objectives

The project will examine the employment implications of possible scenarios of relevance for the future of manufacturing. These will include developments in energy and trade policy and technology and investment. The model will generate forecasts by sector and occupation. Various classifications of jobs (occupations in sectors) as generated by the European Job Monitor will be applied in order to obtain some indication of how the structure of employment implied by various scenarios differs from the baseline. 

Outputs

• Energy scenario: Employment implications of the Paris Climate Agreement
• Trade scenario: Employment implications in Europe of a large increase in global tariffs
• Technology scenario: Employment implications of radical automation