Bleak future predicted for trade unions

A report published in January 2005 suggests that the decline of trade unions in the UK private sector is such that it might culminate in their eventual demise. Unions need to focus on organising new recruits as well as servicing existing members, but without further state support this seems an uphill task. One potential glimmer of hope is said to be provided by the introduction of legislation to implement the EU information and consultation Directive.

An independent 'think tank', the Work Foundation, published a report in January 2005 investigating trends in trade union membership and their changing role in the workplace. The report, British unions: resurgence or perdition?, written by Professor David Metcalf of the London School of Economics, argues that the future is bleak for private sector unions in Britain.

Declining membership and workplace influence

Trade union membership in Britain peaked at 13.2 million in 1979, before falling by 5.5 million over the next two decades. Today, around three in five public sector workers and under one in five private sector workers are union members. The decline, according to the report, reflects sectoral and occupational change - in particular the shift from heavy industry to service sector employment - as well as changes in the business cycle to do with inflation, real wages and unemployment. Also important have been government policy and changes in the law, employer attitudes and the strategies of unions themselves, which have failed to deliver sufficient replacement membership.

Declining membership brought declining influence, compounded by the termination of sector-level collective bargaining in the 1980s. This has helped reduce the proportion of workers whose pay was set by collective bargaining from around 70% to 35%. Trade union influence has also been curtailed by the rise of direct mechanisms for communication and employee 'voice' such as team briefings and quality circles, and intensified product market competition that has helped almost eliminate the threat posed by strikes (UK0301104F). Arguably, the growth of performance-related pay in the 1990s also diminished the relevance of trade unions in pay-setting for individual employees. Professor Metcalf also points out that, even with a more favourable economic and political context since 1997, overall levels of union membership have not increased and density has in fact fallen a further two percentage points.

Metcalf argues that the fundamental problems for the unions are, first, their historic neglect of the low paid when they were able to present a 'monopoly face' in sectors such as manufacturing, mining, utilities and public services. With generally much harsher conditions today even in traditional heartlands of trade unionism, unions have subsequently been left exposed on two fronts, facing challenges to recruit and retain core workers as well as the historically unorganised. A second problem is the increased juridification of the employment relationship in recent years, with a plethora of new rights introduced since 1997 enforceable directly through the law. This has arguably diminished much of the 'collective voice' and 'sword of justice' rationales for trade union presence and engagement in the workplace.

Reversing the trend?

With little prospect of significant employment growth in the unionised sector, Metcalf argues that 'unions must engage in more intense organising activity and enhance their appeal to both employers and potential members'. However, as the Trades Union Congress (TUC) acknowledges, 'commitment to organising still jostles uncomfortably with all the other demands on unions’ efforts and resources'. Servicing existing members is costly in terms of time and funds, yet establishing footholds in previously non-union workplaces also requires sustained efforts and resources. Around two in five workers covered by collective agreements are not union members, however, so targeting new recruits and 'free-riders' in unionised workplaces may pay better dividends. The author suggests that one way of doing this might be to focus on 'justice' not just 'vested interest'- issues such as better health and safety, a narrower spread of earnings, and promoting family-friendly and equal opportunity policies. Efforts could also be made to target employers, either through force of law or by appeals in terms of 'partnership' (UK0205103F). However, the effects of the statutory union recognition procedure introduced in 2000 (UK0201171F) have been modest: fewer than 25,000 workers have been covered by recognition orders, though the law is likely to have had a much more significant indirect effect.

Metcalf argues that efforts to bring in new members by whatever means are unlikely to be able to keep pace with the current membership outflow. Over 2000-2, the unions achieved a 25-year high in recruitment by adding 170,000 workers per year. Yet this figure (which still represents only 1% of the total potential unorganised membership) was insufficient to offset the gross outflow. According to his calculations, trade union density in the longer term is likely to stabilise at around 20%, with a private sector density of 12%. The conclusion is that 'the future for private sector unionisation is bleak indeed'. One glimmer of hope is the the 2002 EU information and consultation Directive (2002/14/EC) (EU0204207F), which requires, for the first time in the UK, permanent arrangements for the information and consultation of employees in organisations with more than 50 workers (UK0502103N and UK0407104F). It will cover three-quarters of the British labour force by 2008. However, Metcalf argues that despite the provision of works-council-type arrangements, it will remain 'a tough job' for unions 'to build on these schemes and to maintain and expand their role within them'- union density remains low in France and Germany, where such arrangements have long been in place, suggesting a 'nightmare' union scenario whereby 'this indirect voice institution crowds out a union voice'.

Union and employers’ views

The general secretary of the TUC, Brendan Barber, admitted in a recent speech that the unions had not achieved growth but argued that halting the decline was in itself a success: 'Given the forces we have had to overcome simply standing still represents a heroic effort.'. The TUC deputy general secretary, Frances O'Grady, responding to Professor Metcalf’s report, also said that 'there is nothing inevitable about decline', pointing out that, from a historical perspective, union membership has long been cyclical. Furthermore, 'with a genuine commitment to move to an organising culture, there is no reason why membership cannot bounce back in the years ahead'. Examples include: the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers (USDAW), which has seen membership rise by 17% over the past decade, despite operating in a low-density, high-turnover sector; the National Union of Journalists (NUJ), which has grown by 25% in just five years; and the public service union PCS, which has recruited 40,000 new members in the past four years. Investment in organising is also helped by union mergers (UK0410105F). A merger between Amicus, the Transport and General Workers’ Union (TGWU) and the GMB could dedicate around GBP 20 million to organising activity per year. Ms O’Grady also referred to a real and latent demand for trade union representation by unorganised workers: 'At a time when some are dismissing trade unions as an irrelevance, it’s worth remembering that unionised work is better work. The union pay premium in like-for-like private sector workplaces is 8.3%; there is less pay inequality; there is a greater likelihood of training, family-friendly policies and decent pensions; and accident rates are cut in half.'

Talk of union irrelevance had been stimulated prior to release of the Work Foundation report by the director-general of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), Digby Jones, in a speech to the CBI Scotland annual dinner in September 2004. Mr Jones said that the decline in private sector union membership meant that the unions were 'increasingly irrelevant every day'. He also argued that too many union leaders had 'outdated notions of the world of work' and were failing to respond to the challenges of the global economy. He argued that 'the only protection people need in a tight labour market with skills shortages is to be so adaptable, trained and valuable that no employer would dare let them go or treat them badly', and said that 'the unions face a stark choice … help the nation with the battle for competitiveness, or wither on the vine of growing irrelevancy.' In response, Tony Woodley, general secretary of the TGWU, said that 'Digby Jones ought to come and join the real world, where we are all working harder for longer. Modern workers need union representation more than ever.' He said the unions wanted a stronger economy with better opportunities for workers, including through training, and advised that 'the CBI should concentrate on building British industry rather than attacking an integral part of it'. The TUC similarly regretted a return to 'the rhetoric of the Thatcher years', and said that 'without unions to stand up for people at work, Britain would be a much less fair society, pensions would be on their way out - except in the boardroom - and many more people would be injured or die at work every year'.

Commentary

No-one today could accuse the unions of complacency in terms of membership figures. The TUC has led a number of high-profile initiatives, from developing the Organising Academy to making overtures to employers via the Partnership Institute. Similar initiatives are under way within individual unions. There is also a significant pool of potential members to be reached - up to 3 million workers say that they might join a union if there was one present in their workplace. The problem for the unions, however, is how to get established in these non-union workplaces in the first place. The fragmentation of collective bargaining has led to higher demands on trade union resources at a time of declining membership revenues. Successive union mergers have been made to achieve economies of scale and stop wasteful competition for members. However, without better engagement at workplace level this is not enough. Fewer and less-experienced shop stewards and full-time officials mean that there is less problem-solving and deal-making at the workplace and a tendency to make recourse to employment tribunals. If influence at workplace level is marginal then the unions will be perceived merely as one of many insurance providers. Promoting grassroots activism is the only way to ensure that statutory employment rights become a floor for union membership rather than a substitute for it. (J Arrowsmith, IRRU)