Outlook for occupational risk trends

A report published by the Danish Working Environment Authority investigates the relationship between changes in employment structure, new job profiles and occupational risk factors. It is estimated that, in the near future, there will be increased risk of physical inactivity, psychosocial risk factors and monotonous strain from working with computers. Moreover, the persistence of traditional work factors should not be neglected.

Since 1996, the Danish Working Environment Authority has been working under the government sponsored programme Clean Working Environment 2005 (135Kb pdf) (Rent arbejdsmiljø 2005). As the programme has now come to an end, a new programme, for the period 2005-2010, has to be decided upon. In light of this, the Danish Working Environment Authority, in cooperation with the National Institute of Occupational Health and the National Board of Industrial Injuries, published the report ‘ Fremtidens arbejdsmiljø’ (Working environment of the future). The report aims at providing a solid foundation for deciding which working environment risk factors should be focused upon, and for setting out the general goals for preventive occupational health and safety activities.

Labour market trends and changing job profiles

According to the report, it is expected that some labour market trends will continue and will have an increasing impact. Among these trends are that:

• the workforce is ageing and, therefore, will decrease in the long run;

• globalisation and international competition will intensify, with the result that unskilled labour in manufacturing will be outsourced to low-wage countries and there will be greater automatisation of production;

• the highest rates of job growth will most likely be found in the service sector (including in social work, personal care and teaching);

• rapid developments in information and communication technologies (ICT) will continue to alter the face of work, and ICT will become even more widespread than it is today;

• a greater proportion of jobs will demand higher qualifications among employees;

• temporary agency work and organisational change will become more common.

These trends have already altered, and will continue to alter, employment structure and job profiles and, as a consequence, the working environment.

Change in risk factors

In the context of the changing employment structure and job profiles, a parallel change in the occurrence of occupational risk factors may be expected. It is anticipated that jobs implying some traditional work factors, such as monotonous repetitive work, will decrease in numbers and that relatively more jobs will imply more sedentary work and increased psychosocial strain. In mentioning these changes, however, the persistence of traditional work factors should not be neglected.

In analysing the trends of changing job profiles in relation to occupational risk factors, the following might be expected to increase:

• physical inactivity from sedentary work;

• monotonous strain from working with computers;

• psychosocial risk factors;

• indoor climate (as proportionally more people will be employed in offices);

• low-volume noise (e.g. from computers or other equipment).

Occupational diseases related to these risk factors are musculoskeletal disorders, cardiovascular disease, stress and psychosocial symptoms.

Gradual change overall

According to the report, the prevalence of certain traditional risk factors, such as monotonous repetitive work, loud noise, and serious and fatal accidents, will most likely decrease. Other risk factors are expected to remain constant overall. For example, lifting of heavy loads might decrease in manufacturing, but persist in transport and in building and construction, or even increase in other sectors (personal care, for instance). Thus, traditional exposure factors may persist.

The report stresses both change and also continuity in assessing the future trends of the working environment. Increases in some risk factors may not necessarily imply that these will become more prevalent or important than risk factors on the decline. In estimating the expected impacts from risk factors on occupational health and safety for the next five years, the report suggests that the risk factors listed below might become most prevalent:

• psychosocial risk factors;

• physical inactivity from sedentary work;

• serious and fatal accidents;

• monotonous strain from working with computers;

• skin diseases and exposure to dangerous substances;

• loud noise (of a level that is damaging to hearing);

• heavy lifting in personal care;

• indoor climate.

Further information

The study ‘ Fremtidens arbejdsmiljø’ (Working environment of the future), published by the Danish Working Environment Authority is only available in Danish (1MB pdf).