European Child Guarantee: Child poverty

As outlined in the European Child Guarantee Recommendation, ‘children in need’ refers to persons under age 18 who are at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE). 

The AROPE rate is measured in the Social Scoreboard accompanying the European Pillar of Social Rights using the indicator from the EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). This indicator is calculated based on the at-risk-of-poverty rate, the severe material and social deprivation rate, and the low work intensity indicator, all of which are described in more detail in the following sections.

The EU27 average AROPE rate for 2022 was 24.7%, rising to around one-third of children in Bulgaria (33.9%) and Spain (32.2%), and to more than 40% of children in Romania. In Slovenia (10.3%), Czechia (13.4%) and Denmark (13.8%), the percentage of children at risk of poverty or exclusion was about half the EU average. The number of children at risk of poverty or social exclusion for the whole EU27 amounted to 20,012,000 in 2022.

Analysis over time of AROPE rate for children, 2015–2022

During the period 2015–2022, the overall period covered by this indicator, the EU average AROPE rate for children decreased, recording a difference of -2.7 percentage points. During the same period, a reduction of disparities can be seen between Member States, which is reflected in the decrease over time in the standard deviation. Therefore, upward convergence is recorded in the EU during this period. Some of the countries that had a high AROPE rate for children in 2015, such as Hungary and Latvia, saw the rate drop below the EU average in 2022. Other countries, like Romania, Greece and Italy, also experienced a significant decrease, but remain well above the EU average. France (27.5%) surpassed the EU27 average in 2022, while Slovakia only reached it, as both countries recorded a surge of around 5 percentage points from 2021. 

Hungary (-22.2 percentage points), Bulgaria (-13.6 points) and Lithuania (-12.4 points) showed the best improvements from the start of the series in 2015 until 2022. Conversely, France (+5.1 percentage points), Germany (+4.7 points) and Luxembourg (+0.7 points) were the three worst performers. Overall, there was a catch-up process over time, with countries that were lagging behind in 2015 improving faster than countries with a more favourable starting point. 

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The at-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP) for children is the percentage of persons aged under 18 who are in households with an income below the 60% median equivalised disposable income after social transfers. The EU-SILC indicator measuring the AROP rate is available from 2010.

In 2022, while the average AROP rate for the EU27 stood at 19.3%, Spain (27.8%), Romania (27%) and Bulgaria (25.9%) had the highest rates of children at risk of poverty. On the contrary, Hungary and Denmark (10.1%), Finland (9.5%) and Slovenia (9.3%) scored the lowest in 2022.

Analysis over time of AROP rate for children, 2010–2022

The other child poverty indicators are available only from 2015. Therefore, the period of time analysed here is different – 2010 to 2022, instead of 2015 to 2021. The AROP rate for children in the EU in 2010 stood at 21.1%, reducing to 19.3% by 2022, improving by 1.8 percentage points. An analysis of trends over the 2010–2022 period shows a decrease to 20.7% in 2013, rising to 21.4% between 2014 and 2016, and decreasing again to 18.5% in 2019. Between 2020 and 2022, the EU average fluctuated around 19.3%.

Overall, disparities between the Member States increased in the period 2010–2022. Therefore, the trends over the period can be described as upward divergence, that is a decrease in the EU average share of children at risk of poverty, coupled with more differences between countries over time. This was particularly the case between 2011 and 2014.

Between 2010 and 2022, Hungary (-10.2 percentage points), Latvia (-10.1 points) and Poland (-8.2 points) performed best, while France (+3.6 points), Slovakia (+3.3 points) and Cyprus (+2.3 points) saw their share of children at risk of poverty increase for the whole period. A similar catch-up phenomenon to the one described in the previous section took place in some countries between 2010 and 2022. For example, Poland and Hungary improved their performance steadily, especially from 2016 onwards. Another group of countries did not see any notable shifts over the same period. This includes countries that maintained over the period a low (Denmark) or a high (Spain) percentage of children living in households with low income.

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The EU-SILC indicator for severe material and social deprivation (SMSD) among children measures the proportion of the population experiencing an enforced lack of at least 7 out of 13 deprivation items.

Six of these items are related to the individual and the remaining seven are related to the household:

1. cannot afford to pay rent or utility bills
2. keep home adequately warm
3. face unexpected expenses
4. eat meat, fish or a protein equivalent every second day
5. a week holiday away from home
6. have access to a car/van for personal use
7. replace worn-out furniture
8. replace worn-out clothes with some new ones
9. have two pairs of properly fitting shoes
10. spend a small amount of money each week on oneself (‘pocket money’)
11. have regular leisure activities
12. get together with friends/family for a drink/meal at least once a month
13. have an internet connection

In 2022, the average share of children living with severe material and social deprivation was 8.4% across all EU Member States. Romania (30.8%), Bulgaria (19.2%) and Greece (15.5%) recorded the highest percentages, while Austria (2.2%), Slovenia (1.8%) and Finland (1.7%) stood at the other end of the spectrum. 

Analysis over time of the severe material and social deprivation rate for children, 2015–2022

Between 2015 and 2021, the percentage of children living with SMSD in the EU decreased from 11.8% in 2015 to 8.4% in 2022. Disparities between Member States during the period decreased substantially. Therefore, the trends during the period can be described as upward convergence, that is a decrease in the EU average coupled with fewer differences between countries over time.

All countries experienced a decrease in the SMSD rate over the period, except for France (+2.2 percentage points), Sweden (+1.8 points), Germany (+1.7 points), and Finland (+0.8 points), which recorded an increase. Bulgaria recorded the largest change in absolute terms, which saw a deprivation rate of 41.7% in 2015 fall to 19.2% in 2022: an improvement of -22.5 percentage points. Hungary and Lithuania also experienced a notable drop over the whole period, recording a difference of -20.5 and -12.4 percentage points respectively.

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The EU-SILC analysis measures the percentage of children living in households where the adults worked 20% or less of their total combined working time potential during the previous year. This indicator is calculated by omitting from the ‘adults’ category young students aged 18 to 24 and people who are retired or inactive and living in a household where the main income comes from pensions.  

In 2022, 7.6% of children in the EU lived in households with very low work intensity. Ireland had the highest percentage (10.9%), closely followed by Germany (10.8%), France (10.7%) and Bulgaria (10.6%), whereas Luxembourg (2%), Slovenia (2.4%) and Cyprus (2.5%) have less than 3% of children living in this situation.

Analysis over time of children living in a household with very low work intensity, 2015–2022

Analysis of the percentage of children living in a household with low work intensity shows that countries converged between 2015 and 2022, meaning that disparities as measured by the standard deviation decreased steadily over time. The reduction of disparities between Member States was steady between 2015 and 2020. Disparities rose, however, between 2020 and 2021. In 2022, they shrunk again. 

During the period, Croatia halved the percentage of children living in this situation, from 12.6% in 2015 to 5.7% in 2022, a difference of -6.9 percentage points. Ireland experienced the largest drop by -8.3 percentage points, from 19.2% to 10.9%, with strong fluctuations over time. Germany (+3.9 percentage points), France (+3.2 points), Finland (+1.3 points) and the Netherlands (+0.3 points) experienced a rise in absolute terms over time for this indicator. 

Nevertheless, countries with a small percentage of households in this situation did not change much, hence the diverging pattern observed in the data. To ascertain the effects of COVID-19 by looking at the changes between 2020 and 2019, the data show the biggest change in Germany, France and Lithuania. 

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The relative at-risk-of-poverty gap is an important indicator to quantify inequality within a society, as it measures how far the income of the median person at risk of poverty is from reaching the threshold.  

In this case, the relative at-risk-of-poverty gap is calculated as the difference between the median equivalised net income of people at risk of poverty under 18 years old, and the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (also set at 60% of the national median equivalised disposable income). The difference between the median income of children at risk of poverty and the at-risk-of-poverty threshold is then expressed as a percentage, showing how much their income should increase to match the poverty line. A larger gap implies that the median disposable income of children at risk of poverty stands increasingly lower than the at-risk-of-poverty line. 

The EU27 average for the relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap among children was 24.4% in 2022, rising to around a third of all children in Spain (31.8%) and Romania (33.1%), to the highest percentage of 42.8% found in Bulgaria. Finland, Hungary and Germany present the shortest distances between the median income of those at risk of poverty and the at-risk-of-poverty threshold: 12.3%, 14.5% and 16.8%, respectively. 

Analysis over time of the relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap for children, 2015–2022

The EU27 average of this indicator for children markedly narrowed from 27.5% in 2015 to 25.5% in 2017, then fluctuated around 25.5% up to 2021. In 2022, the average among Member States was 24.4%. Hence, for the whole period, the average for the region saw a decrease of -3.1 percentage points. During the period 2015–2022, a reduction of disparities can be seen between Member States, apart from a slight rise in 2020 (to 26.5%), which is reflected in the decrease over time in the standard deviation. Therefore, upward convergence is recorded in the EU during this period.

Overall, the countries experiencing the largest increase in the at-risk-of-poverty gap were the Netherlands (+11.7 percentage points), Austria (+5.4 points) and Bulgaria (+5 points). On the other end of the scale, Romania (-10 percentage points), Greece (-9.6 points) and Latvia (-8.5 points) showed the best improvements for this indicator between 2015 and 2022: their relative distance between the median person at risk of poverty and the at-risk-of-poverty line remarkably diminished. 

Several countries have experienced notable fluctuations over time. Bulgaria, which has mostly scored highest, reported a 37.8% relative distance in the income of children at risk of poverty from the at-risk-of-poverty threshold in 2015. It narrowed the gap below its average in 2021 at 33.7%, but widened to 42.8% in 2022, well above its average and a difference of 9.1 percentage points in only one year. Finland, which has scored lowest in most years, reported an at-risk-of-poverty gap of 11.3% in 2015, standing almost at its average for the whole period 2015–2022 (11.4%), although fluctuating around it by a few percentage points each year. Between 2020 and 2021, the relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap for children in Finland dropped below 10% but widened to 12.3% in 2022. 

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This indicator represents the percentage of persons aged 15 or less who face a disability, that is, activity limitations due to health problems. It is part of a rolling module on children that was included in the EU-SILC 2021 and repeated every three years. All spectrums of activities are covered: self-care and school, home and leisure activities. The level of limitation can be distinguished between moderate and severe. Temporary or short-term limitations are excluded.  

The EU27 average share of children aged 0-15 years facing either moderate or severe levels of limitations in activity was 4.4% in 2021, rising to the highest level of 9.3% in Finland. Both Malta and Cyprus stand at 2%, representing the lowest shares of children with disability among all Member States. 

Among the EU27, 3.4% of children reported moderate disability and 1.0% had severe disability. Across the Member States, the share of children with moderate limitation in activities due to health problems ranged from 7.9% in Finland and 7.5% in Denmark, down to the smallest shares of 0.9% in Cyprus and 0.5% in Greece. Children with a severe limitation accounted for less than 2.0% in all EU Member States, except in Belgium (2.0%).

Analysis over time of the share of children aged 0 to 15 with limitations due to health problems

The indicator is available also for 2017, although with low reliability of data for Denmark, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Finland and Sweden. As only two points in time are observed, trends in convergence cannot be formally identified. In 2017, the estimated EU27 average share of children with either moderate or severe limitations in activity was 4%, which reflects 3.2% facing moderate limitations and 0.8% facing severe disability. Disparities across Member States were greater in 2017 than in 2021, as displayed by the smaller standard deviation.

Between 2017 and 2021, Spain experienced the largest increase in the share of children with activity limitations, a positive difference of +4.4 percentage points, followed by Italy (+1.7 points), Belgium and Bulgaria (+1.6 points). Latvia reported the biggest drop of -9.6 percentage points. Romania and Lithuania followed with a difference of -5.4 and –4.0 percentage points, respectively.

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This indicator makes use of national sources to monitor the number of children in alternative care, as this population sub-group is not covered by the EU-SILC survey. Data are collected and reported by the DataCare project, then reviewed by the Indicators’ Sub-Group (ISG) of the Social Protection Committee (SPC).  

The figures presented in this analysis are in absolute terms, along with the computation of the share of children in residential care out of the number of children in alternative care to monitor de-institutionalisation. However, it is not possible to analyse this indicator over time as numbers were sourced only once between 2017 and 2022. Hence, no trends in convergence can be identified, but it may be noted that disparities across Member States were larger for the number of children in alternative care than for residential care. 

France recorded the highest number of children in alternative care (158,124), followed by Germany (147,700), Poland (121,225) and Romania (42,029). The countries with the lowest absolute figures reported were Slovenia (1,167), Cyprus (608) and Malta (440). Conversely, Greece (84.5%), Cyprus (65.5%) and Austria (62%) displayed the largest percentage of children in residential care (out of the number of children in alternative care). At the opposite end of the scale, Lithuania (19.7%), Latvia (9.4%) and Ireland (8.8%) showed the smallest shares.

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