Are Europeans prepared for climate change?

Mary McCaughey 0:05 Hello and welcome to this edition of Eurofound Talks. Today we're going to be talking about climate change. Climate change is still very much on the agenda, even though that may not be entirely clear from everything that's going on in the world right now. But we are discussing whether Europeans are actually effectively prepared for the kind of climate change that is occurring.

We have recently published a report from both Eurofound and the European Environment Agency, one of our sister agencies, where it outlines the very serious situation that we are facing. Four out of five Europeans have already felt the impact of extreme weather from either scorching heatwaves or devastating wildfires. We know that they understand that this is what is occurring, but there seems to be a huge gap between these risks and our feeling or our ability to be able to cope with them.

At the macro level, we have a European Union that is committed still to net zero by 2050. We want to see a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. And at the same time, we have individuals saying that nearly 40% of them report that they are actually unable to afford to keep their homes cool. This is despite all of the efforts by EU institutions and Member States to strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to the climate change element.

But today we're diving into climate-related results specifically from one survey that Eurofound hosts on an annual basis. That's called the Living and Working in Europe e-survey. It looks at, takes the temperature, if you like, of what European citizens are experiencing across the Member States. And we're going to explore the gap between the EU ambitions on resilience and the reality of what that means for preparing households for the climate risks across Europe.

We're also going to, I hope, discuss what policymakers can do to ensure that this is a socially fair transition. So I'm delighted today that we are joined actually by one of our colleagues from the EEA, Aleksandra Kazmierczak. You're very welcome, Aleksandra.

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 2:42 Hello, hello, great to be here.

Mary McCaughey 2:44 And from Eurofound, we have Marianna Baggio. You're very welcome, Marianna.

Marianna Baggio 2:49 Thank you very much, Mary.

Mary McCaughey 2:52 So, Marianna, I want to start with you. This report that we're talking about, it comes from this Living and Working in the EU survey. How was this data collected this year and how representative is this survey, if you like, of the average European household?

Marianna Baggio 3:10 So the e-survey is one of the surveys, as you said rightly, that we run every year. And you recently had Esther as well talking about the findings about financial resilience and trust that were coming from the exact same survey we ran. And in that survey, we have every year a little module that changes and looks into something that we are interested as a researcher.

Mary McCaughey 3:21 Yes.

Marianna Baggio 3:33 We know that policymakers as well are very interested in it. That little module this year was done in collaboration with the EEA and we together really thought about what can we ask Europeans about climate change, about preparedness, about their behavioural actions, what do they do, what they can't do, where do they struggle.

Mary McCaughey 3:47 Tell us more.

Marianna Baggio 3:52 So the idea was to collaborate together. And as you know, and maybe the listeners also know, that the e-survey is collected around all 27 EU Member States. This year, we collected 27,000 responses. We have a group of respondents that is our panel, so from year to year, they keep on responding, which is great for us to look at trends. And then we have new people that we recruit through social media advertising.

Because it is an online survey, it doesn't perfectly mirror the European population. However, as researchers, we have a way of fixing this by using some statistical adjustments that reflect the picture of Europe as a whole. And we fix this by age, gender, education level, and regions. So it's like taking a picture of Europe and you realise that the colours are not just quite right and you go and adjust them a little bit. So at the end of the day, the picture is a good picture. It tells you about what's happening.

Mary McCaughey 4:43 Thank you.

Marianna Baggio 4:57 As you said, it measures the temperature. It shows what's out there and you can really reflect on it. However, we always say very clearly in our report that you shouldn't take those absolute numbers as set in stone, but it's really about giving us trends. It's about showcasing where the struggles are.

Mary McCaughey 4:58 Mm-hm.

Marianna Baggio 5:15 It's telling policymakers, "look at this, this, and this, and pay attention to what is happening".

Mary McCaughey 5:21 Yeah, but I mean, to be clear as well, that when we have looked at the results from the e-survey—even though it is a very different survey from our other more robust methodologically sound surveys, if you like, like the Working Conditions Survey and the Quality of Life Survey—the results that we find from the e-survey do map very nicely onto the results from those other surveys.

Marianna Baggio 5:35 Yeah, absolutely. And in our report, readers will see that we check from these other surveys that are available where we are placed, and then we add on top of this some mechanism, more information. So it's really building on top of what's already available as well. It's absolutely a good tool.

Mary McCaughey 5:51 Yeah. And what's interesting is that from our Working Conditions Survey—and we just had the results from our most recent European Working Conditions Survey in 2024 that we carried out and the results have been coming through over the last little while—we know that there has been an increase in reporting on high levels of heat for those who are working. So here, I suppose what we're looking at is heat in terms of how it affects the citizen, the non-working citizen, if you like, or the citizen when they're not working. And can you tell us a little bit about what this survey tells us about how people are experiencing high temperatures in their daily lives, particularly when we're talking about homes versus what they would experience in the workplace?

Marianna Baggio 6:45 So the result of this survey was really striking in the sense that one out of two really feels hot at home. And the heat was really something that was felt also outside the house, like in your neighbourhood. And this was even higher than in the house, like 60%. So people are uncomfortable.

Mary McCaughey 7:03 Sixty percent of people are feeling that they are too hot in their neighbourhood?

Marianna Baggio 7:07 And outside the house, it's around half in the house. And then when they go into their neighbourhood, it's just slightly higher. So they are hot at home. When they go out, they feel the heat. And this is quite strong. I think overall, you said it at the beginning, 80% of the people have felt some climate change impacts.

Marianna Baggio 7:29 Was it the flood, was it the wildfires? In Ireland, 43% felt the impact of wind.

Mary McCaughey 7:32 We can feel the wind, perhaps, Marianna, but we're certainly not feeling the heat here.

Marianna Baggio 7:42 No, we are not feeling the heat. But overall in Europe, that was the most felt. And I think one out of two that had a home feel too hot, it's quite striking. And I think it's also important to highlight that people in the cities were feeling it much more than people in the countryside because you have this cement block kind of heat.

But really feeling hot was what was striking. I think feeling hot at home is something really uncomfortable. It was more than what people felt at work, because maybe at work you have air conditioning—that's a shared infrastructure—while at home, it's up to you to make sure that you don't feel that warmth and that heat, and that's a struggle.

Mary McCaughey 8:23 Certainly that is. I mean, Aleksandra, maybe we can look at that a little bit more because I saw in the results that it also says that one in five say that there are no resilience measures at home. I mean, that's kind of what we would say is measures in place to offset the kind of thing that Marianna is talking about here. Why is the uptake of these sort of things like insulation or flood-proofing so low?

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 8:54 Well, what we found through the survey is that the uptake of different resilience measures really differed. So actually, things like roof and wall insulation or shading were amongst the most frequently applied ones, with just under half of the respondents having them. So we can take either the optimistic view that it's nearly half of the respondents who have them at home or a slightly more negative view that half of them didn't have it.

Let's remember that not all houses would need insulation or shading. So for example, there are traditionally built houses in Southern Europe with very thick walls. They might be able to actually withstand the heat and protect people inside from high temperatures. Also, if you live in a flat that has north and east facing windows, you do not necessarily need shading. And if you don't live in a flood risk area, you might not need flood protection. So sometimes it's actually the location of the house that might dictate whether resilience measures are needed.

However, what I found slightly concerning is that only about 40% of the respondents had in place insurance that would protect them against extreme weather, which means that six out of ten of our respondents would be exposed to high levels of losses if extreme weather events such as flooding or wildfire or wind actually happened.

Mary McCaughey 10:34 But Aleksandra, would that also be not necessarily always because someone can't afford to take insurance for these measures, but also because the insurance companies don't offer them that kind of coverage?

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 10:46 It might be the case. We have a variety of different insurance systems in Europe; some are more market-based, so to speak, some are more solidarity-based. So it really depends on the country, but it might be indeed that even in some high-flood-risk areas, the housing insurance is not available or it's not affordable because the insurance premiums are so high that people are actually priced out of the system that is supposed to protect them.

Mary McCaughey 11:07 Yeah, and that will probably be increasingly the case as insurance companies realise this kind of threat that we are experiencing. I mean, it also looks, I suppose, very much at this affordability crisis. And we're already looking at a cost-of-living crisis. Now with the current wars across the globe, we're looking at a heating crisis because of the oil prices. But I suppose also similarly, we'll be looking at a crisis in terms of trying to keep houses cool. And I see that in terms of the results, there's nearly 40% of respondents say that they can't afford to keep their homes cool. And Marianna says that's increasingly a problem. We're already in this sort of socioeconomic crisis of inequalities. How does this change the way a family experiences a heatwave?

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 12:12 I must say that I found this number—the 38% of people not being able to afford keeping their home comfortably cool—absolutely shocking. Especially comparing against previous surveys that were asking similar types of questions about their ability to keep cool, which was usually oscillating around 19 or 20% of the European population.

I think that two factors indeed have been in play here. Firstly, the increasing heatwaves and hot periods across Europe. But secondly, like you mentioned, the energy crisis and the prices going up as a result of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine.

Mary McCaughey 13:03 And the most recent war in Iran as well. We can understand that it has been exacerbated by that further.

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 13:21 Yes, and the even more shocking finding was that for the respondents who were struggling the most financially, even two-thirds of them were not able to afford keeping their home cool. So we see a sort of huge disparity between the wealthier and the poorer respondents, which very clearly links to the affordability of measures.

There is plenty of evidence that suggests that people who are in a worse income situation might be experiencing heatwaves in different ways. Marianna already mentioned this issue that people might be hot at home because they might be living in poor quality houses that overheat, but they actually live in a very dense urban environment that is also very hot.

The same groups might be working in low-income jobs—in kitchens, as delivery drivers, as bus drivers—and they are constantly exposed to heat, which means that they might not get the respite at work, at home, or even when travelling to work by public transport. It's relentless.

And if I just may add to that, if you add the level of personal vulnerability as well—if you are in poor health and on low income, or if you are an elderly person and on low income and you cannot afford any protective measures—then your exposure to heat might mean that you actually get a heatstroke or that your heart disease or kidney disease gets worse. The most frequent victims of heat are people over 75 or those that have cardiovascular diseases or other pre-existing health conditions.

Mary McCaughey 15:11 And I assume very young people also—babies exposed to that level of heat would also be very vulnerable.

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 15:23 Yes, babies and children and even adolescents. Actually, there is some very interesting research from Czechia about hospital admissions or emergency visits during heatwaves that points out a very high share of young people being admitted as well. So indeed, it's not a problem for just the elderly, it's a society-wide problem.

Mary McCaughey 15:47 Yeah, I mean, I'm very interested in this divide because it would seem there's a rural-urban heat divide, and now you're also talking about this divide when it comes to health issues. Also, I suppose there's a divide between Southern, Eastern, and Northern Europe. Clearly, Marianna and I wouldn't have the same experience of this heat as other countries do. Are we going to look at another regional divide across Europe when it comes to this?

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 16:29 Definitely. Southern Europe is really a hotspot when it comes to climate change impacts. This is where the most intense and frequent heatwaves happen, the hotspot for wildfires, and where water scarcity issues are concentrated. The flooding in the Valencia region also shows that this region is not immune to flooding. All climate science is pointing out to the fact that it will only get worse, and much worse than in other regions of Europe.

Respondents from Southern Europe were the most frequently reporting being impacted, and they also usually had a lower level of preparedness at home, with the exception of air conditioning and shading. At the same time, Northern Europe emerges as the least impacted and also not very well prepared.

Mary McCaughey 18:00 Although, Aleksandra, they're perhaps not impacted by heat, but I presume they're impacted by other climate-related weather changes.

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 18:10 Yes, indeed. For example, in the case of flooding, we could see a higher number there, and problems with wind in Ireland. One finding that I found very interesting was that respondents from Central and Eastern Europe were reporting more frequently having the preparedness measures at home. Traditionally, Eastern Europe was perceived as the least prepared region, so it's interesting to see that individual preparedness and the preparedness by local authorities, as perceived by respondents, is actually higher for many measures than in other regions.

Mary McCaughey 19:20 The report is also talking about renters—that those who are renting their accommodation might be hit harder. Why is that the case?

Marianna Baggio 19:43 Well, I think that there is a mismatch in the incentives between renters and owners. I'm a renter and I can't hang a picture on the wall, let alone make big changes like installing an air conditioning system. At the same time, the owner doesn't really have an incentive to improve my home because they're not living there and it's going to cost them money. So renters are forced quite often into a living situation that is not up to standard.

There is also the risk of "renovictions," where the owner wants to renovate and then puts the house back at a higher price because people want to live in homes that are better insulated and more energy efficient. For renters, this is a really difficult spot because of this mismatch of incentives.

Mary McCaughey 21:21 But Marianna, would it not be incumbent on policymakers to ensure that there is a baseline level of measures so that you can't rent that kind of accommodation without that facility being available?

Marianna Baggio 21:42 I think this is absolutely true. For some Member States, you can see this is the direction where it's been going. For example, in Belgium, you cannot have a hike in your rental prices if your home has not been up to standards in terms of energy efficiency.

In our research, we also found a slight difference between those renting in the private market versus the public space. Generally, the public sector has higher standards than the private sector in terms of energy efficiency and protecting the renters. But absolutely, tenants have a worse overall situation than owners.

Mary McCaughey 22:49 And when we talk about those who have poor health, is it that they have less agency because of their vulnerabilities or is it because there is a general lack of resources?

Marianna Baggio 23:04 It's a mix of both. When you have health issues, you might also have problems regarding your income situation; you might need to work less or have a disability. So you have less availability to invest in solutions. But I also think that it's quite demanding to have poor health in terms of your cognitive availability to handle so many issues. Dealing with your health while also thinking about climate change and adapting is quite overwhelming. Here, the public policy should look into that and lend a hand to help these people who are really compounding their vulnerabilities.

Mary McCaughey 24:11 Moving on to the understanding or the awareness of all citizens—how are the information campaigns working? Are they actually contributing to making people more aware and taking action?

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 24:52 I think that awareness campaigns and extreme weather warnings are absolutely key. We have seen how early warnings reduce fatalities associated with flooding. For example, Poland was hit by flooding in September 2024 and only nine people lost their lives, compared to 55 or 56 in 1997. This improvement is attributed to the awareness of the population and the effective warnings in place.

Having said that, just issuing a warning without saying what should be done and without giving people the agency to act is not enough. We can also debate whether issuing more warnings leads to the population being desensitised. In the case of heat warnings, a large proportion of the population enjoys warm weather, so hearing that 27 or 30 degrees is dangerous can feel like "crying wolf" to many. If people hear the same warning over and over, they just stop listening. It's a very fine balancing act.

Mary McCaughey 27:32 That resonates with the bigger picture of the communication campaign on climate change—that "five minutes to midnight" warning doesn't ring true any longer because people have heard it for too long. So it is a question of how do you communicate better to ensure that people actually do take action.

Marianna, I'm interested in the perspective with respect to the different generations. Young respondents in this survey indicated some of the highest levels of concern about climate change. What do you think that tells us?

Marianna Baggio 28:38 The youngest generations are the ones that are going to see climate change really unfolding into the ways that we hope it doesn't. Their perspective is much longer than somebody who is older—their worry is relatively short-term, dealing with what is happening now.

In our survey, we've seen that those 75 and up were the most prepared at home. They are homeowners and had a lifetime to build savings they can invest in these measures. Meanwhile, young people are facing compounded challenges, like being unable to move out of the house or find a place to live, while also having to deal with climate change, which feels like an unfair inheritance from previous generations.

Mary McCaughey 30:00 There is no doubt that this report gives us an awful lot of food for thought. If you were to meet one policymaker who could make a difference, what would be the three main points you would put on the table?

Marianna Baggio 30:40 First, help renters, not just homeowners. We need grants and loans to allow both tenants and homeowners to invest in rented property so renters can live better without prices skyrocketing. Second, we need to make cooling affordable for everyone, because those who struggle the most are the ones who are financially struggling as well. And third, update building rules so that preparedness is embedded in how we build from the very start.

Mary McCaughey 31:41 Aleksandra, anything to add?

Aleksandra Kazmierczak 31:48 To expand on what Marianna said, many grants for insulation or roof work require a substantial upfront investment, which immediately filters out lower-income groups. We need more progressive grants and subsidies that differentiate between income levels.

I'd also return to the issue of awareness. Simple things, like throwing the curtains or not going out shopping at midday, can help people keep cool. We need awareness-raising that gives people practical tools. Finally, we cannot just rely on actions by individuals. We need substantial investment into collective measures—effective spatial planning that doesn't build houses in floodplains and urban greening to help cities deal with extreme rainfall and heat.

Mary McCaughey 34:09 Collective action is required; it cannot always be down to the individual. Information campaigns need to be targeted and action-oriented. And we must address these growing regional, generational, and urban-rural divides.

I would like to thank you both very much. Please do access the overall report, Overheated and Underprepared: Europeans' Experience of Living with Climate Change, which is available freely on our website. Thank you for listening to Eurofound Talks. You can follow us at both the EEA and Eurofound on social media channels.

Mary McCaughey 35:50 Thank you again. Until next time, when Eurofound talks to you.