In early 2004, most current EU Member States announced transitional restrictions on free movement of labour from the countries joining the Union in May 2004. This has caused little stir in Latvia, where future labour migration to the present Member States is not predicted to be substantial, and a main concern is retaining the current labour force - and especially skilled workers - in the face of a shrinking population.
Under transitional arrangements agreed by the EU and the new Member States in central and eastern Europe which will join in 1 May 2004, the existing Member States may limit movements of workers from the new Member States for a period of up to seven years after enlargement. In late 2003 and early 2004, the current Member States followed one another in announcing that they are to put in place such restrictions in order to protect their labour markets. In Latvia, this appeared to meet with public understanding, and there has been little discussion of the legal and ethical issues arising from these labour market restrictions and plans for restricting social security benefits. This is probably explained by a number of factors. First, Latvia itself saw a high level of immigration in the 1960s, when rapid industrialisation facilitated the inflow of workers from other Soviet republics. Second, job opportunities in the current Member States have not been entirely removed, and skilled specialists still have the possibility of working in the present EU. Third, there are not that many people in Latvia who would like to move permanently and work in the current Member States.
However, at the political level, prior to the referendum in September 2003 in which the people of Latvia voted to join the EU, the opportunities created by the single market to work in other EU countries were mentioned as a significant benefit of accession. A counter-argument was that Latvia could lose a proportion of its qualified workers, who, experience has shown, are able to find work in western European countries. From this perspective, the planned restrictions on free movement of labour to the existing Member States can be viewed more positively than negatively. They would also restrict illegal migration, which is in no country’s national interests. However, the restrictions could affect young people heading for the old EU to gain new experiences and learn languages, returning home after a few years.
Migration trends
Latvian experts have long believed that concerns about large-scale emigration to the 'old' EU after Latvia’s accession are exaggerated. Long-term migration statistics show that virtually all such movements relate to internal migration within Latvia. Since 1998, net emigration has not exceeded 5,500 persons, and in recent years it has been declining. In 2002, only 1,830 more people left Latvia than entered the country. The main directions for emigration are the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) - ie many former Soviet Union countries - the current EU and the USA, but the scale of immigration is insignificant. Net emigration was significantly greater in the early 1990s when Soviet army units and their families left Latvia. In 1992, the share of internal migration in all migration was just 46.4%, and the number of emigrants exceeded the number of immigrants by 47,000, of whom 44,000 departed for the CIS countries. Since 1993, the share of internal emigration in total emigration has risen from 53.7% to 90.6% in 2002. Of total net long-term emigration, over half consisted of persons departing for the CIS countries. In the first nine months of 2003, long-term internal migration increased both in absolute terms and as a share of total migration (accounting for all but a few percentage points of all such movements). External emigration and net migration fell.
The trend over the last few years is that, as the economic situation improves, good business, career, and employment opportunities are also opening up in Latvia, and the number of emigrants is falling. In 2000, 7,130 people emigrated from Latvia, falling to 3,260 in 2002 and 1,610 in the first nine months of 2003. Furthermore, Latvians are more interested in opportunities for living and working in the USA and Canada, than in the present EU countries. This is connected not only with more liberal labour migration policies in the USA and Canada, but also with the fact that there are larger émigré Latvian communities in these countries.
A recent European Commission survey found that if the current EU labour market was opened to the new Member States without delay, the opportunity would only taken up only 1% of the populations of the latter, and a majority of those departing would be well-educated, young and unmarried people. This tends to indicate a risk of a 'youth and brain drain' risk rather than threats to the social systems of existing Member States and the growth of 'social tourism'. In Latvia, the answer 'I am considering the possibility of working in the current Member States' was given by 2% of those surveyed, while the answer 'I have firmly decided to work in the current Member States' was given by just 0.8% of those surveyed - in line with the averages in all countries where the survey was conducted.
Since interest in employment opportunities in other EU countries could arise, the Latvian State Employment Agency (Nodarbinātības Valsts Aģentūra, NVA) will provide information about consultants who have information about such employment opportunities. People in Latvia will be able to receive free advice about vacancies and living and working conditions in other EU Member States countries. By the end of 2004, it is planned to link the Latvian employment database with the EURES European employment services network database, and the information will be available on the internet. It is hoped that by 1 May 2004 information about access to the labour market in every Member State will be available on the EURES website and in the EURES section of NVA’s website.
Skilled specialists
With regard to the interest of specialists in particular professions in working in the current EU, the signs are that there is not a great desire to work abroad. Despite announcements of job opportunities for information technology specialists in the present Member States, the number of departures is not great, according to Latvian Electrical Engineering and Electronics Industry Association (Latvijas Elektrotehniskas un Elektronikas rūpniecības asociācija, LETERA). Thanks to rules that specialists from the so-called 'regulated professions' (78 in total in Latvia, including doctors, nurses, dentists, pharmacists, veterinarians, architects, engineers, and lawyers) must have their qualifications recognised throughout the EU, and institutions have been founded in Latvia to facilitate this, it is possible to gain an insight into the desire of such specialists to seek work in the present Union. Gunta Arāja, deputy director of the European Integration and International Assistance Programme Coordination Department at the Ministry of Education and Science said on 10 November 2003 in the Dienas newspaper that 'there are no queues outside the recognition institutions'. Thus, at present, there is no sign of increased migration by Latvian specialists to the existing Member States (or of movement in the opposite direction).
Information currently available regarding free movement restrictions in the EU 15 shows that, while opportunities for qualified specialists to seek work there have not improved, they have not significantly worsened either. As Agu Vahurs, vice-president of the recruiting agency group CV-Online, told Dienas: 'those who want to work overseas can already do it - the opportunities are there. Maybe there will be more information about these opportunities.' Just as they have been able to until now, young people will be able to attend universities in the current EU. Many Latvian specialists will leave to work in EU institutions. At the end of 2003 there was a lot of interest in working in these institutions, and of 295 Latvian citizens who applied for auxiliary staff positions in a tender organised by the EU personnel selection office, 34 were accepted for employment. However, at the start of 2004 press reports indicated that the desire to work in EU institutions is actually not so great, and it will be difficult to fill the positions allocated to Latvia. Not including several dozen translators, in the seven years after accession around 155 people from Latvia will be able to find jobs with the institutions.
Migration to Latvia
The accession agreements also provide that the new Member States will also be able to impose free movement of labour restrictions on existing Member States. However, the Latvian Ministry of Welfare has announced that such restrictive measures for will be applied only if it can de demonstrated on a factual basis that there is a threat to the labour market. The Ministry believes that there is currently no basis for such restrictions. However, it is foreseen that, for purposes of supervising the labour market, citizens of other EU countries working in Latvia will require work permits. Similarly, there are no plans to reduce access to the social security system for citizens of other EU countries working in Latvia, because according to the Ministry of Welfare, the only way to do this legally would be to reduce social guarantees for Latvian citizens as well.
Commentary
Labour market changes after EU enlargement worry not just the old Member States, but the new ones as well. One of Latvia’s main problems is the rapid ageing of its population and its low birth rate, as a result of which the population is rapidly decreasing. This affects labour supply, a significant precondition for economic growth. Therefore, retaining its labour force is just as important for Latvia as labour market protection is for the current EU countries. From this viewpoint, the measures introduced by the current Member States to restrict free movement of labour from the new Member States are also beneficial for resolving Latvia’s labour market problems. Additionally, support for illegal job seekers is not in the interest of any country.
On the other hand, as its labour supply decreases, Latvia may need to import labour from other countries. This possibility and its consequences are not being widely discussed at present, but they look very likely. Currently, the final laws are being adopted in Latvia that would make an influx of labour easier, but the scale of immigration and its social consequences have not been studied yet. (Raita Karnite, Institute of Economics, Latvian Academy of Sciences)