New party surprise winner of election

New centre-left party Positive Slovenia emerged as the surprise winners of the country’s first snap election on 4 December 2011. The party, formed just weeks before the election, was led by the Mayor of Ljubljana, Zoran Jankovič. The result confounded expectations that the country would shift to the right after the centre-left Social Democrat government lost a confidence vote over its proposed economic and pension reforms and was forced to call an early election.

Background

A parliamentary election for the 90 deputies to the National Assembly of Slovenia was held on 4 December 2011. This was the first snap election in Slovenia's history.

Positive Slovenia (PS), the centre-left party led by Serbian Zoran Janković, Mayor of Ljubljana, emerged as the surprise victor. Although it only has a narrow two-seat lead over its nearest rival, the result has confounded expectations that the electorate would shift to the right. The centre-right Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) led by Janez Janša (Prime Minister from 2004–2008), which had topped all public opinion polls ahead of the election, came second with 26% of the vote.

The centre-left Social Democrats (SD), led by former Prime Minister Borut Pahor, polled only 10.5% of the vote and won 10 seats. Pahor’s government was ousted on 20 September 2011 after it lost a vote of confidence over attempts to introduce pension reforms and other measures to combat the economic crisis. Pahor, the latest casualty of the eurozone crisis, said his party had done better than expected.

The turnout was high at 64.83% of the electorate. The new parliament will hold its first session no later than 24 December 2011.

Results of election

According to unofficial results published on 7 December 2011, seven parties have won seats in parliament:

• Positive Slovenia (PS) led by Zoran Janković, 28 seats (28.55% of the vote);

• Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), led by Janez Janša, 26 seats (26.22%);

• Social Democrats (SD) led by Borut Pahor 10 seats (10.51%);

• Gregor Virant's Civic List (LGV) led by Gregor Virant, eight seats (8.41%);

• Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia party (DeSUS), led by Karl Erjavec, six seats (6.98%);

• Slovenian People's Party (SLS) led by Radovan Žerjav, six seats (6.88%);.

• New Slovenia party (N.Si) led by Ljudmila Novak, four seats (4.81%).

Two seats are constitutionally allocated to one representative of the Italian minority and one from the Hungarian minority.

Positive Slovenia is not the only new party to have performed well in the election. The conservative LGV, winner of eight Assembly seats, was also formed just weeks before polling day.

Three parties previously in parliament, Liberal Democracy of Slovenia (LDS), Zares, and the Slovenian National Party (SNS) have lost all their seats, all securing less than 4% of the vote. However, the N.Si has returned to the Assembly after losing its seats in the 2008 election.

Commentary

Janković, the most likely candidate for Prime Minister, will have to seek partners to form a coalition government. Analysts predict these will be PS, SD, LGV and DeSUS. Janković, who managed Slovenia's largest food retailer Mercator before becoming mayor of Ljubljana in 2006, has previously ruled out a coalition with Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party. The small parties will prove to be crucial in forming a coalition, as PS’s natural allies alone have too few votes to build a government. PS and SD together have 38 votes, while the right bloc has 36. The new government has to be a government of reform and faces the challenge of turning around Slovenia's economy, which is sliding into a new recession and risks a further credit rating downgrade.

Štefan Skledar, UMAR