Report examines future jobs and qualifications

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A report issued in December 2002 by a French interministerial taskforce (with input from the social partners) takes stock of changes in both labour needs and labour availability over the coming decade. Based on an appraisal of the situation, it advocates an active stance from the government, local authorities, social partners and companies in renewing and enlarging the labour force.

An interministerial taskforce on 'the future of employment and qualifications' (Prospective des métiers et des qualifications), chaired by Claude Seibel, was set up with the remit of assessing the long-term effects of demographic, and technological changes as well as mobility on jobs and qualifications. In late 2002, the taskforce published a report entitled Jobs in the future (Avenirs des métiers, Rapport du groupe 'Prospective des métiers et des qualifications', Commissariat général du Plan, La Documentation française, Paris, December 2002). The report provides a statement of the situation, puts forward proposals and focuses on the initiatives that should be put in place to monitor changes in this area. The respective positions and reactions of trade unions and employers’ associations are annexed to the report.

Appraisal of the situation

Three issues were identified by the taskforce, with each being allocated to a specific workshop: the impact of demographic changes for the age structure of employment and labour market dynamics; the consequences for jobs of the spread of information and communication technologies (ICT); and occupational mobility. The proceedings of each workshop are to be published some time in the future.

Generational change in the labour force, which is expected to be intense in France from 2005-6 due to high numbers of people retiring, is expected to affect most types of employment, sectors and regions, but in varying degrees. However, it cannot be taken for granted that unemployment will fall in the wake of this phenomenon. There is no direct link between a fall in the working population and a reduction in unemployment. The annual number of people retiring, according to taskforce estimates, is forecast to increase from 480,000 between 2000 and 2005 to 650,000 between 2005 and 2010. However, not all sectors will be equally affected by this phenomenon. Teaching, the civil service, training, healthcare, banking and insurance and the legal professions are expected to have major recruitment needs. The hotel, restaurant, food, construction and public works sectors will experience average retirement rates. Other industries, such as research, information technology or consumer services are expected to see lower than average retirement rates but will, nevertheless, experience labour market pressures generated by their own development dynamic.

In light of the across-the-board emergence of ICT, the creation of jobs related to these technologies is expected to continue. This technology will however, have an impact on traditional-type jobs. Apart from just creating new types of jobs, the advent of ICT has led to the development of new employment patterns, ie new combinations of qualifications, skills and job features that used to be totally separate. Formulating these patterns and recognising them in newly-defined job descriptions is a challenge for the future, no matter how these skills and qualifications were gained (eg initial training, life-long training, informal on-the-job training, work or social experience).

As a rule of thumb, the larger the number of jobs created, the greater the mobility between jobs. Over the coming few years, the labour market might be conducive to occupational mobility, in particular among highly qualified individuals. However, it is essential to avoid the continued sidelining of employees with little initial formal education. It is vital to target the 'validation of experience' system on this group.

Taskforce recommendations

Addressing these challenges in order to renew and enlarge the working population was one of the main concerns of the taskforce.

The report proposes achieving a significant increase in available labour over the next few years, by, in particular, raising the employment rate. The main ideas under consideration as ways of significantly increasing the workforce are: getting those currently excluded from the labour market back to work; retaining older workers in employment; developing a policy to control the flow of immigrants into the workforce; and developing a more effective education-to-employment system for young people, based on making jobs more attractive in sectors where recruiting and retaining workers is difficult.

The taskforce found that there is a lack of data on the following three areas: changes in occupational mobility; the monitoring of changes in job descriptions tied to certification and the validation of employment experience; and the notion of 'unskilled labour' as it relates to jobs, skills and professional and wage recognition.

The taskforce considered that economic and social partners, together with local authorities, need to play an active role. It suggests, in particular, that coordination should be developed between national and local initiatives, especially those in the regions in cooperation with the Regional Training and Employment Observatories (Observatoires régionaux de l’emploi et de la formation, OREFs) and Training Resource and Information Centres (Centres d’animation et de ressources d’informations sur la formation, CARIFs). There should also be ties between broad-based and sector-specific initiatives, in cooperation with sector-level observatories.

Lastly, members of the taskforce have put forward the idea of setting up a permanent, 'lean' body under the auspices of the Commission for the National Plan (Commissariat général du Plan) to undertake consultation and coordination tasks as well as to oversee the process of considering the future of qualifications and employment. The goal here would be to enable the Prime Minister to assert the need to take early action in these areas.

Social partner input and reactions

Trade unions and employers’ associations played a significant role in the work done by the taskforce and the report included papers by the French Democratic Confederation of Labour (Confédération française démocratique du travail, CFDT), the French Christian Workers’ Confederation (Confédération française des travailleurs chrétiens, CFTC), the General Confederation of Labour (Confédération générale du travail, CGT), the General Confederation of Labour-Force Ouvrière (Confédération générale du travail-Force Ouvrière, CGT-FO), the Unitary Union Federation (Unions Fédération syndicale unitaire, FSU), the National Federation of Independent Unions (Union nationale des syndicats autonomes, UNSA) and the Movement of French Enterprises (Mouvement des entreprises de France, MEDEF).

Each of these organisations developed its own proposals in this part of the report. However, they all recognised that the report focused on a collective solution-building process and agreed that work on the issues raised needed to continue, but in greater depth. The taskforce’s proposal of enhancing its action on a permanent basis through the creation of an ad hoc body reporting to the Commission for the National Plan was endorsed by the majority of unions and employers’ associations.

Commentary

The report published by the taskforce headed by Claude Seibel provides an assessment of labour requirements in the various sectors. It is now up to public and private actors to use this information to address future labour needs and shortages so as to bring down unemployment and avoid a situation of both high unemployment and major labour shortages in specific sectors.

The proposal made by the taskforce to create a permanent body on future labour and qualification issues within the Commission for the National Plan is particularly timely given that some members of the parliamentary majority are calling for this body, originally set up by General De Gaulle and Jean Monnet after the Second World War, to be scrapped. (Maurice Braud, IRES)