Trends and drivers of change in the European commerce sector: Four scenarios

This report describes four different scenarios for the future development and state of the European commerce sector. A scenario describes a plausible hypothesis about the future: it is a tool used in foresight exercises for policy analyses and policy formulation, and for strategy processes in private companies and among social partners. The four alternative scenarios presented here represent realistic, internally consistent and plausible pictures of alternative futures. Scenario 1: protectionism/personal identity and spiritual/cultural values; scenario 2: free movement of goods/personal identity and spiritual/ cultural values; scenario 3: free movement of goods/personal identity and ability to consume; scenario 4: protectionism/personal identity and ability to consume.