During the pandemic, many young people had to change their plans for the future. While at the end of 2023 young people’s labour market situation was more favourable than it had been in recent years, many obstacles remained on their route to independence, such as the rising cost of living and inability to move out of the parental home. This report explores young people’s wishes and plans for the future – and the well-being outcomes related to these plans – in the context of the current labour market and housing situation and progress on the implementation of the EU’s reinforced Youth Guarantee.
Key messages
- Housing is one of the main obstacles to young people becoming independent, with the less financially well-off being less likely to be able to move out of the parental home, putting financial strain on the household. Young people living with their parents are most likely to have difficulty making ends meet.
- New findings reveal that a mismatch between aspirations and concrete plans, especially when it comes to finding a job, is associated with a higher risk of depression among young people. Despite the mental well-being of young people improving since the pandemic, in 2023 it was still weaker than those aged over 30.
- The mismatches between young people’s aspirations and their concrete plans when it comes to housing are striking, with young people finding themselves squeezed out of home ownership and still in the family home or stuck renting. These unfulfilled aspirations to move out of the parental home are associated with a higher likelihood of feeling excluded from society.
- Although the EU’s current high youth employment rate has alleviated pressures on active labour market policies and the reinforced Youth Guarantee, some groups still face challenges. It will be critical in the coming period to continue this support and for EU policy to focus on young mothers, who are now the most likely to not be in education, employment or training, and severe regional disparities.
- LGBTQ+ young people and those at risk of depression are most likely to have unfulfilled aspirations to have children. Higher incomes and living with parents are associated with a higher likelihood of young people planning to have children soon where half report they would like to move in with a partner within three years, about a third would like to get married and a similar proportion would like to have children.
Executive summary
By the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, many young people in Europe found that they had been forced to change at least parts of their plans for the future – for their educational and career paths, for their housing circumstances and for starting their own families. The labour market in Europe continues to be strong, and favourable economic conditions have contributed to a youth employment rate higher than that seen at any time in the previous 15 years. However, pressures on young people’s plans have increased when it comes to housing and the cost of living, and concerns about youth mental well-being remain. This report provides an in-depth overview of young people’s lives post-pandemic, with a focus on plans for the future and the circumstances that can either hinder their fulfilment or help towards it.
Policy context
During the pandemic, the focus of policy was helping businesses survive, but the EU institutions were also quick to increase youth employment support, introducing the reinforced Youth Guarantee, which extended the age limit for those targeted under the scheme from 25 to 29 years. Progress made and challenges experienced in implementing the scheme are outlined in this report, highlighting the importance of continued support for the reinforced Youth Guarantee. This is particularly necessary because youth-related employment measures have been somewhat underrepresented among those supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility.
Key findings
- The youth employment rate in the EU is higher than at any time since 2007, and the percentage of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) is historically low. Furthermore, the proportion of discouraged workers among NEET young people is at its lowest recorded level.
- There are signs of improvements in job quality for young people, with fewer involuntary temporary contracts, greater perceived job security and better work–life balance than during the pandemic years.
- However, young people are less satisfied with their jobs than older cohorts and would like more autonomy at work. Nearly half of young people want to change jobs within a year, and the proportions are higher among those never able to work from home and those with insecure contracts.
- Most young people are looking for opportunities for training or further education. Experience of a traineeship is common in the EU. However, inequalities – for example, gender disparities – have been found to affect traineeship quality.
- Housing difficulties are among the main obstacles to young people becoming independent. Young people who are less financially well off are less likely to be able to move out of the parental home, which in turn may put financial strain on the household. As a result, young people living with their parents are most likely to have difficulty making ends meet.
- Mismatches between young people’s aspirations and their concrete plans are particularly common when it comes to housing. Increasingly, young people would like to buy a home but find themselves stuck renting. In addition, this report found that unfulfilled aspirations to move out of the parental home are associated with a higher likelihood of feeling excluded from society.
- Young people reported unusually low levels of mental well-being during the pandemic. By 2023, youth mental well-being had improved. However, this improvement was weaker than it was among people over 30. Furthermore, the research found that a mismatch between aspirations and concrete plans, when it comes to getting a job, is associated with higher risk of depression among young people.
- Among young respondents across the EU, 40% would move abroad in the next three years if they could, and nearly a quarter have plans to do so. However, there are large differences between countries.
- Many young people have plans to start their own family soon: over half of under-35s would like to move in with a partner within three years, while about a third would like to get married and a similar proportion would like to have children. Having a higher income and living with parents is associated with a higher likelihood of planning to have children soon. Conversely, LGBTQ+ young people and those at risk of depression are more likely to experience a mismatch between wanting and planning to have children.
- With regard to progress on the reinforced Youth Guarantee, pressures on active labour market policies are lower, now that the employment rate among youth is as high as it is, resulting in an overall sense of delay. However, in many southern European countries there are still high NEET rates and regional disparities, and these countries have expressed concerns about the scheme’s capacity to deliver in the most deprived regions.
- In many countries, young mothers are now more likely to be NEET than young men, with family responsibilities now the biggest reason for being NEET. However, EU policy measures specifically aimed at young mothers or young women more generally are scarce.
Policy pointers
- Continued support for the implementation of the reinforced Youth Guarantee is crucial, especially given evidence that youth-related policies have disproportionately emphasised formal education over labour market integration.
- Increased emphasis may be needed on the gender dimension of the NEET rate, as in several countries young mothers are now the group most likely to be NEET.
- Previous efforts to implement the Youth Guarantee aimed to expand the capabilities of each country to reach out to young people and improve the framework for matching them with the appropriate service, while setting up new services where necessary. Current efforts also seek to monitor the alignment of services with young people’s needs, with a stronger participatory approach. National and regional strategies should focus on disengaged and vulnerable young people, especially in contexts of lower urbanisation and neighbourhood deprivation, and on providing the required resources and information to institutions and their partners. The report provides examples of good practices from countries including Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland and Spain.
- Decent work must be a focus of youth employment policy. The labour market remains precarious and unfair to the young generation, given the cost of living and housing costs. While jobs are available, many are unattractive, badly paid and unable to offer young people a decent living.
- While the reinforced Youth Guarantee is seen as primarily an economic/employment policy, its success is closely related to the policy areas of family, housing and childcare, to measures fighting gender and intersectional discrimination, and to synergies with the European Commission’s 2023 mental health strategy.
The report contains the following lists of tables and figures.
List of tables
- Table 1: Distribution of NEET young people, as a proportion of all 15- to 29-year-olds, EU27, 2013, 2019 and 2020 (%)
- Table 2: Distribution of NEET young people, as a proportion of all 15- to 29-year-olds, using the new EU-LFS structure, EU27, 2021 and 2022 (%)
- Table 3: Determinants of job satisfaction
- Table 4: Mental well-being of young people by gender, EU27, 2023
- Table 5: Mental well-being of young people by degree of urbanisation, EU27, 2023
List of figures
- Figure 1: Employment rate by age group and sex, EU27, 2007–2022 (%)
- Figure 2: NEET rates by urbanisation level, EU27, 2008–2022 (%)
- Figure 3: Categorisation of NEET young people, EU27, 2013, 2019 and 2020 (%)
- Figure 4: Categorisation of NEET young people using the new EU-LFS methodology, EU27, 2021 and 2022 (%)
- Figure 5: Temporary employment rate by age group, EU27, 2007–2022 (%)
- Figure 6: Proportion of workers experiencing perceived job insecurity by age group, EU27, 2020–2023 (%)
- Figure 7: Self-employment rate by age group, EU27, 2007–2022 (%)
- Figure 8: Self-employment among 15- to 29-year-olds years by level of urbanisation, EU27, 2006–2022 (%)
- Figure 9: Young people involved in platform work in the previous year, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 10: Work–life conflict by age group, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 11: Work–life conflict among those aged 16–29 years, EU27, 2020–2023 (%)
- Figure 12a: Probability of work–life conflict by age group, EU27, regression analysis. Works or worries about work in free time
- Figure 12b: Probability of work–life conflict by age group, EU27, regression analysis. Work impinges on time/energy for family/household
- Figure 12c: Probability of work–life conflict by age group, EU27, regression analysis. Family impinges on work time or concentration
- Figure 13: Job conditions for young workers and older workers, 2020–2022 (%)
- Figure 14: Remote work and work contacts for younger workers and older workers, 2020–2022 (%)
- Figure 15: Young people’s plans and wishes related to employment, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 16: Proportion of young people enrolled in education by age group (based on number of students enrolled), EU27, from 2015 (%)
- Figure 17: Proportion of young people (aged 16–29) who participated in education or training over the previous four weeks, EU27, 2004–2022 (%)
- Figure 18: Attainment of tertiary education by gender and age group, EU27, 2002–2022 (%)
- Figure 19: Young people’s plans and wishes related to education and training (excluding current students), EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 20: Probability of being offered a job after a traineeship, EU27, 2023 – average marginal effects
- Figure 21: Measures of financial strain by age group, EU27, 2022 (%)
- Figure 22: Difficulty making ends meet among those aged 15–29 by EU Member State, 2022 (%)
- Figure 23a: Probability of financial strain, EU27, 2022 – regression estimates. Probability of being unable to afford unexpected expenses
- Figure 23b: Probability of financial strain, EU27, 2022 – regression estimates. Probability of finding it difficult to make ends meet
- Figure 24: Young people living with their parents by age group, EU27, 2022 (%)
- Figure 25: Employment status of young people living and not living in the parental home, by age group, EU27, 2022 (%)
- Figure 26: Young people aged 25–34 in employment and living in the parental home by EU Member State, 2022 (%)
- Figure 27: Housing insecurity by age group and living or not living in the parental home, EU27, 2020–2023 (%)
- Figure 28: Young people’s plans and wishes related to housing, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 29a: Trust and life satisfaction (score from 1 to 10), EU27, 2022 (%)
- Figure 29b: Participation in social engagements and leisure activities, EU27, 2022 (%)
- Figure 30a: Predicted levels life satisfaction and trust in others, EU27, 2022 – regression coefficients. Trust in others. Life satisfaction
- Figure 30b: Predicted levels life satisfaction and trust in others, EU27, 2022 – regression coefficients. Trust in others
- Figure 31: Self-reported good or very good health by age group, EU27, 2020–2023 (%)
- Figure 32: Probability of self-reporting good health, EU27, 2020–2023 – regression coefficients
- Figure 33: WHO-5 average scores and proportions of people at risk of depression by age group, EU27, 2020–2023
- Figure 34: Measures of negative affect by age group, EU27, 2020–2023 (%)
- Figure 35: Risk of depression among young people with and without a mismatch between aspirations and plans, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 36: Mismatch between aspirations and plans among young people with and without financial strain, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 37: Self-perceived social exclusion by age group, EU27, 2020–2023 (%)
- Figure 38: Self-perceived social exclusion among young people with and without a mismatch between aspirations and plans, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 39: Probability of feeling socially excluded, EU27, 2023 – average marginal effects
- Figure 40: Probability of feeling socially excluded, EU27, 2023 – selected average marginal effects including of mismatch between plans and aspirations to move out of the parental home
- Figure 41: Young people’s plans and wishes related to family, EU27, 2023 (%)
- Figure 42: Probability of planning to have a child within the next year, EU27, 2023 – average marginal effects
- Figure 43: Probability of experiencing a mismatch between wishing to have a child and planning to, EU27, 2023 – average marginal effects
- Figure 44: Young people planning or wishing to move to a different country within three years by Member State, 2023 (%)
- Figure 45: Probability of wishing to move to another country within three years, EU27, 2023 – average marginal effects
- Figure 46: Probability of planning to move to another country within three years, EU27, 2023 – average marginal effects
- Number of pages
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84
- Reference nº
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EF23097
- ISBN
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978-92-897-2403-6
- Catalogue nº
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TJ-05-24-314-EN-N
- DOI
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10.2806/87785
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