Europe’s widening rural–urban divide may make space for far right

The state in which the EU finds itself has been described as a ‘permacrisis’, whereby the Union is confronted by challenge after challenge, and citizens are constantly having to adapt to a ‘new normal’. Tackling short-term crises – including energy price spikes – as well as longer-term challenges – such as military conflict, demographic change and global warming – requires the trust and support of Europe’s citizens. But the growing divide between rural and urban areas is becoming an increasing threat to political trust and social cohesion. Far-right political movements are taking advantage of rural discontent to win seats in parliaments. With European Parliament elections taking place in 2024, this shift to the right could shape the EU for many years to come.

Growing gaps in income, employment, skills and services

Over the past decade, incomes have been consistently higher in urban areas than in rural areas. In fact, between 2012 and 2021, the rural–urban gap in incomes increased by almost 20%. This is not surprising when we consider that employment rates have also been consistently higher in urban areas than in rural areas (this is another widening gap, albeit not as dramatic).

This growing rural–urban divide is not likely to reverse anytime soon, in part because the rural population is falling behind in the attainment of education and skills. Tertiary educational attainment is higher in cities, and the gap with rural areas has widened over the past decade. Residents of cities are also more likely to have digital skills than their rural counterparts. Because levels of education and skills are higher in cities, urban areas are better equipped to reap the advantages of globalisation and technological change.

Gaps in the provision of public services between rural and urban areas are also increasing, and declining and ageing populations pose challenges to future service provision in rural areas – fewer people means the economic viability of delivering these services lessens as the cost (per user) of providing them increases. While there are examples of innovative solutions being rolled out to tackle service decline, many of these depend on broadband connectivity, which tends to be of lower quality outside of urban areas.

Recognising inequality: Rural communities feel disregarded

This is all taking its toll on the morale of people living in rural areas and having a negative knock-on effect on social cohesion within Member States.

Data from the spring of 2022 show significant ‘recognition gaps’ between those living in cities and those living in rural areas.[1] Recognition gaps occur when certain individuals and groups feel that their role in society and cultural identity are not valued or recognised by governments. What this means in practice is that residents of rural areas are more likely to express feelings of being forgotten, ignored or disrespected by institutions.

Eurofound data show that rural residents are more likely to perceive disrespect or disregard towards themselves and towards their communities.

This is a real issue as such recognition gaps can have a significant negative impact on individuals’ self-esteem, social mobility and political participation, and deepen feelings of discontent.

Feeling mistreated drives political discontent

If inequalities in income, employment opportunities and living conditions wear down morale in rural areas, then it should come as no surprise that they also shape attitudes, erode political trust and lead to dissatisfaction with democracy. Eurofound research shows that rural residents have lower levels of trust in their governments and in the EU, and they express lower levels of satisfaction with democracy than those living in more urban areas.

This is political discontent, and it is an issue that should not be underestimated.

Discontent can have damaging side effects, including a deterioration of social cohesion, polarisation, and tension between urban and rural areas.

Discontent can give rise to civil unrest, as exhibited by the gilets jaunes protests in France and the movimento dei forconi in Italy.

Discontent can strengthen anti-EU political parties and increase their election power, which could serve to shape the policies of more mainstream political parties. [2] Such a scenario may even threaten the very viability of the European project itself.

The far-right threat will vary between Member States, depending on the extent of inequalities, the level of discontent and the number of parliamentary seats allocated to rural voters. Nonetheless, politicians and decision-makers across Europe cannot afford to ignore the divergence in prosperity between rural and urban areas. They must urgently deploy place-based policies that ensure the economic viability as well as the provision of high-quality public services to improve living conditions in rural areas. Opportunities for education, training and employment of young people should be provided through the implementation of the reinforced Youth Guarantee. Provision of childcare services should be ensured in rural areas so that working parents can engage in employment. High-speed, quality internet should be delivered to allow rural communities to take part in the digital transition. Steps such as these are critical for sustaining a sense of worth in rural communities and maintaining the cohesion at the heart of the European project.

Copyright: Image © StudioHeron/Adobe Stock

Footnotes