Promoting social cohesion and convergence
Konvergenca na ravni EU: geografska razsežnost, vpliv pandemije covida-19 in vloga politike
Published:
22 March 2023
Research report
Abstract
Gledano z vidika preteklosti je politična razprava o konvergenci na ravni EU dobila nov zagon po krizi. Zaradi pandemije covida-19 je namen tega poročila oceniti trende na področju konvergence v zadnjih dveh desetletjih. Študija se začne z empirično raziskavo ekonomske, socialne in institucionalne konvergence v obdobju med letoma 2004 in 2019 na ravni držav članic in regionalni ravni. Analiza se nato razširi na leti 2020 in 2021, da se prouči tudi vpliv pandemije. Študija potrjuje splošno navzgor usmerjeno konvergenco, ki so jo sprožile srednje- in vzhodnoevropske države članice in za katero se zdi, da jo je pandemija upočasnila, ne pa tudi ustavila. Analizi trendov sledi ocena morebitnega učinka mehanizma za okrevanje in odpornost na konvergenco in razprava o različnih scenarijih politik za podporo navzgor usmerjeni konvergenci na podlagi sedanjih izkušenj z mehanizmom za okrevanje in odpornost ter potekajoče razprave o prihodnosti kohezijske politike EU.
Key findings
Čeprav je EU po gospodarski krizi v letih od 2008 do 2013 znova dobila zalet, konvergenca v EU do leta 2020 ni dosegla hitrosti pred krizo, čeprav so se gospodarske, družbene in institucionalne vrzeli med posameznimi državami članicami EU enakomerno zmanjševale vse do izbruha pandemije covida-19.
V EU je šlo med letoma 2004 in 2019 na regionalni ravni za navzgor usmerjeno konvergenco, čeprav je ta potekala počasneje kot na državni ravni. Ta trend so večinoma usmerjale srednje- in vzhodnoevropske države članice, ki so se srečevale s hitro rastjo svojih osrednjih regij. Nasprotno pa je v južnoevropskih regijah prišlo do gospodarske stagnacije ter splošnejšega poslabšanja družbenih in institucionalnih razmer, kar je potrdilo potrebo, da navzgor usmerjena konvergenca ostane v središču ukrepov politike EU.
Kriza zaradi covida-19 je močno vplivala na konvergenco v EU, in čeprav ni obrnila trenda močne navzgor usmerjene konvergence, je pospešila nastajajoče vzorce divergenc, kot so naraščajoče razlike v BDP na prebivalca. To je pokazatelj, da bo EU nujno potrebovala politična orodja, ki se bodo zlahka prilagodila velikim gospodarskim pretresom in svetovnim družbenim spremembam, povezanim z zelenim in digitalnim prehodom EU.
Mehanizem za okrevanje in odpornost je odziv EU brez primere, s katerim si ta prizadeva za preoblikovanje gospodarstev držav članic po pandemiji covida-19. Analiza načrtov za okrevanje in odpornost štirih držav je pokazala, da ta ključni instrument prispeva k reformam in naložbam, ki bi sicer še naprej ostale samo neuresničene želje, in čeprav konvergenca sama po sebi ni cilj načrta za okrevanje in odpornost, je možen stranski proizvod načrtov držav članic za okrevanje.
Izvajanje mehanizma za okrevanje in odpornost postaja pomembna podlaga za razmišljanje v prihodnosti o alternativnih načinih za podporo navzgor usmerjeni konvergenci. Najnovejše ugotovitve ponujajo različne možnosti za doseganje tega cilja, kot so nadaljnja krepitev tradicionalnih kohezijskih politik, oblikovanje centraliziranega modela reform in naložb ali razvoj celostnega pristopa, ki združuje močnejše kohezijske politike s centraliziranim modelom reform in naložb. To bodo ključni elementi, ki jih bodo morali oblikovalci politik EU upoštevati v okviru razprave o podpiranju ekonomske in socialne konvergence.
The report contains the following lists of tables and figures.
List of tables
Table 1: Economic, social and institutional indicators used in the convergence analysis
Table 2: Unconditional beta-convergence in the EU, by indicator and time period, 2004–2019
Table 3: Conditional convergence in income inequality, 2004–2008, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
Table 4: APE on probability of convergence in income inequality
Table 5: Conditional convergence in the AROPE rate, 2005–2008, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
Table 6: APE on the probability of convergence in the AROPE rate
Table 7: WGI pairwise correlations
Table 8: Unconditional beta-convergence in the NUTS 2 regions, by indicator and period, 2004–2019
Table A1: Income inequality convergence (2004–2008, 2008–2013, 2013–2019)
Table A2: AROPE conditional convergence (2005–2008, 2008–2013, 2013–2019)
Table A3: Performance of four countries in relation to the European Pillar of Social Rights Social Scoreboard 2020
List of figures
Figure 1: Beta-convergence – GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 2: Sigma-convergence – GDP per capita (PPS), in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 3: Beta-convergence – adjusted household disposable income per capita (PPS), EU27, 2009–2019
Figure 4: Sigma-convergence – adjusted household disposable income per capita (PPS), in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2009–2019
Figure 5: Beta-convergence – income quintile share ratio, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 6: Sigma-convergence – income quintile share ratio, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 7: Predicted probabilities of convergence in income inequality, by value added in the agricultural sector, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster
Figure 8: Beta-convergence – compensation of employees per hour worked, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 9: Sigma-convergence – compensation of employees per hour worked, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 10: Beta-convergence – employment rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 11: Sigma-convergence – employment rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 12: Beta-convergence – unemployment rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 13: Sigma-convergence – unemployment rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 14: Beta-convergence – NEET rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 15: Sigma-convergence – NEET rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 16: Beta-convergence – early school-leavers rate, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 17: Sigma-convergence – early school-leavers rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 18: Beta-convergence – AROPE rate, EU27, 2005–2019
Figure 19: Sigma-convergence – AROPE rate, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2005–2019
Figure 20: Predicted probabilities of convergence in the AROPE rate by income inequality levels, in EU27 and by geographical cluster
Figure 21: Beta-convergence – government effectiveness, EU27, 2004–2019
Figure 22: Sigma-convergence – government effectiveness, in the EU27 and by geographical cluster, 2004–2019
Figure 23: Sigma-convergence in quality of governance indicators, 2004–2019
Figure 24: Beta-convergence – GDP per capita, NUTS 2 regions, 2004–2019
Figure 25: GDP per capita in NUTS 2 regions – transition maps and matrix and distribution of classes, 2004–2008
Figure 26: GDP per capita in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2008–2013
Figure 27: GDP per capita in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2013–2019
Figure 28: GDP per capita growth (%) in CEE countries, by region, 2004–2019
Figure 29: Beta-convergence – employment rate, NUTS 2 regions, 2004–2019
Figure 30: Employment rate in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2004–2008
Figure 31: Employment rate in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2008–2013
Figure 32: Employment rate in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2013–2019
Figure 33: Beta-convergence – EQI, NUTS 2 regions, 2010–2019
Figure 34: EQI in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2010–2013
Figure 35: EQI in NUTS 2 regions – transition map and matrix and distribution of classes, 2013–2019
Figure 36: Beta-convergence – GDP per capita, EU27, 2013–2019 and 2013–2021
Figure 37: Sigma-convergence – GDP per capita (€), EU27, 2004–2021
Figure 38: Beta-convergence – employment rate, EU27, 2013–2019 and 2013–2021
Figure 39: Sigma-convergence – employment rate (%), EU27, 2004–2021
Figure 40: Beta-convergence – government effectiveness, EU27, 2013–2019 and 2013–2020
Figure 41: Sigma-convergence – government effectiveness, EU27, 2004–2020
Figure 42: Total number of social reforms in Croatia, Germany, Italy and Spain, by policy area
Figure 43: Breakdown of investment by policy areas in Croatia, Germany, Italy and Spain (% of total RRF funds)
- Number of pages
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104
- Reference nº
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EF22016
- ISBN
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978-92-897-2312-1
- Catalogue nº
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TJ-07-23-025-EN-N
- DOI
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10.2806/706661
- Permalink
Cite this publication
Eurofound (2023), EU convergence: Geographical dimension, impact of COVID-19 and the role of policy, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.