Real growth in minimum wages in 2026, amid both progress and pullback on Member States’ ambitions

Most countries changed the level of their national minimum wage from 1 January 2026 and, as in the previous year, the general picture is one of substantial increases – significantly exceeding (preliminary estimates of) price increases. To ensure the adequacy of statutory minimum wages, according to the EU Minimum Wage Directive, the wage setters determining the uprates must adhere to criteria that ‘shall be defined in a clear way’. These are set out in the national regulations guiding minimum wage setting. In addition, under Article 5(4) of the directive, countries with a statutory minimum wage must use ‘indicative reference values'1 to guide their assessment of its adequacy. These targets, which Member States have mostly formulated in terms of a percentage value of average or median wages, based on examples of values ‘commonly used at international level’, were likely a major driver of this result for 2026. Inflation, which is often the main determinant of the magnitude of increases, was outpaced this year by the nominal growth of the national minimum wage in nearly all countries – substantially, in many cases. Figure 1 provides an overview of the growth of nominal national minimum wages between 1 January 2025 and 1 January 2026, together with preliminary estimates of inflation.

In several countries with a statutory minimum wage, the uprates for 2026 were substantial, the aim being to reach or move towards certain target values. Most of these countries decided to take a staged approach over several years. In Bulgaria, the increase of 12.6% was based on a formulaic approach, whereby the national minimum wage is determined in the amount of 50% of the average gross wage, as well as consideration of macroeconomic factors. In Czechia, the uprate of 7.7% was based on the previously established indexation mechanism and a further step towards achieving 47% of average wages by 2029. In Germany, the Mindestlohnkommission agreed on an increase of 8.4% for 2026 and a further increase of 13.9% for 2027 – the largest uprate since the establishment of the commission ‒ with the specific aim of pushing the statutory minimum wage towards 60% of median wages. Lithuania does not have a reference value set by law, but a social partner agreement concluded in 2017 mentions a range of 45–50% of average wages. In the most recent consultation process on increasing the statutory minimum wage, three scenarios for different reference values were discussed and, after the failure of the social partners to reach agreement and prompted by strong estimated wage growth, the government decided on a substantial increase of 11.1%. This will bring the statutory minimum wage closer to 50% of average wages. The 12.1% jump (€99 per month) in Slovakia was also that country’s ‘highest increase in history’ and was set automatically by law at 60% of average wages, after failed social-partner negotiations. This was met with reservations from employers, who would have preferred a staged increase.

Slovenia is the only Member State to have opted for a different type of indicative reference value, linking its statutory minimum wage to a ‘minimum cost of living’, determined based on a basket of goods and services. A re-evaluation of the minimum cost of living carried out in 2025 (three years earlier than originally planned) revealed that it had increased significantly more than consumer prices since September 2022. The minimum wage was subsequently increased by 16% to ensure that the workers concerned earn above the poverty threshold.

In some countries, the rate at which the statutory minimum wage is being increased in line with a target percentage of wages slowed and there was less progress than planned. Nevertheless, the uprates for 2026 (implemented or planned) were largely substantial. In Estonia, social partners had signed a good faith agreement to raise minimum wages to 50% of average wages by 2027, with a plan to reach 47.5% in 2026. Negotiations on the uprate for 2026 were prolonged and, at the time of writing, ongoing. Any change in the rate is expected to be implemented in March, at the earliest. In Hungary, in 2024, social partners negotiated a stepwise increase over three years (aiming to reach 50% of average wages by 2027), with an additional agreement to renegotiate the figures depending on certain economic parameters. The initially agreed increase of 13% was subsequently reduced in the renegotiation to 11%. In Ireland, in April 2025, the government decided to extend the timeline for the introduction of a living wage, set initially to reach 60% of median wages in 2026, to 2029. The Low Pay Commission took this into account in its analysis and recommendation, and the resulting increase for 2026 is 4.8%. Romania decided to postpone uprating its national minimum wage until July 2026. The envisaged increase will bring the national minimum wage to 47% of average wages, the lower limit of Romania’s reference value.

Croatia doesn’t have an indicative reference value enshrined in law, but rather a requirement to arrive at ‘an increasing share’ of actual wages. In explaining its most recent decision to increase the national minimum wage by 8% (+€80 per month), which was criticised by employers, the government referred to the examples mentioned in the directive (50% of average/60% of median wages) and to the value of 54% of gross average wages reached in 2024.

In Greece, wage setters use various figures and estimates to calculate the ratio of statutory minimum wages to actual wages, with the ones used most recently suggesting that the targeted reference values have been reached or exceeded. The uprate approach during 2025 led to an increase of 6%, largely as a result of the established consultation process involving the social partners, their institutions, specialised public agencies, scientific institutions and related bodies. However, the General Confederation of Greek Labour decided not to take part in the consultation, arguing that wage setting was mainly done unilaterally and proposing a return to collectively agreed minima. In Latvia, the reference value for the national minimum wage is 46% of average wages ‘for the last 12 available months’, with 12 other macroeconomic, social and labour market criteria also taken into account. When setting the rate for 2026, 46% of the average wages for the months for which data were available at the time amounted to €775, which was rounded up to €780 (an increase of 5.4%).

In another group of countries, the indicative reference values that the directive requires wage setters to set for themselves ‘to guide the assessment of adequacy’ did not play a role in the uprating process for 2026. This is partially because the directive has not yet been fully transposed into national law (as in Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain) and partially because the wage-setting mechanisms are largely based on formulaic indexation approaches (as in Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Malta and the Netherlands). Other reasons include targets being formulated in absolute euro values (Portugal), adequacy reviews or uprates beyond inflation being conducted only every four years (Belgium (public sector), France, Malta), or the values targeted by wage setters being widely regarded as achieved (France, Spain).

Several of the above-mentioned countries are among those with the lowest nominal (and real) uprates for 2026, including Luxembourg (+2.5%), Poland (+3%), Malta (+3.5%), Belgium (+4%, owing to two indexations in 2025), Cyprus (+8.8% over two years, i.e. until 2028) and the Netherlands (+4.6%). Note, however, that Belgium, France and Luxembourg are among the countries with the highest minimum wage levels, where the magnitude (in percentage terms) of yearly increases tends to be less than in countries with a lower minimum wage.

In countries without a national minimum wage, collective bargaining proceeded in the established ways. In Austria, against a background of sluggish economic growth and continued high inflation, the nominal increases mostly merely compensated for inflation, if at all. During 2025, there was, once again, intense parliamentary debate in Italy on introducing a statutory minimum wage. Ultimately, this resulted in Act 144/2025, which avoided establishing any legal wage floor but will strengthen collective bargaining mechanisms. In the Nordic countries, the main pattern-bargaining rounds to coordinate wage setting took place and the central-level agreements that provide direction for further sectoral and then company-level bargaining were concluded. In Denmark, the Industrial Agreement, covering 230,000 employees, was renewed in February 2025 and provided for wage increases of 7.89% over three years. In Finland, that same month, an almost identical increase (of 7.8% over three years) was stipulated in the pattern-setting agreement for the technology industry. Most sectoral agreements that had expired during 2025 followed that lead. In Sweden, the pattern-setting Industry Agreement, concluded in April 2025, established one of the highest wage increases in the agreement’s 30-year history – 6.4% over two years – and included a ‘low-wage initiative’, whereby employees earning less than certain thresholds will be guaranteed additional increases. The central agreement was followed by a renegotiation of 510 collective agreements covering 3.4 million employees. In Norway, too, central-level negotiations led to a settlement. Workers in the private sector receive at least NOK 5 per hour, while those in low-wage sectors receive an additional NOK 2 or NOK 4, depending on whether they are covered by company-level bargaining or not. The annual increase across all sectors is estimated to amount to 4.4%.

The convergence in the EU27 of wages in general and minimum wages in particular is an ongoing trend in 2026, especially in light of the substantial uprates in the latter in most of the lower-wage Member States. It appears that the revision of (statutory) minimum wage regulations in many countries has influenced the uprates for 2026, first and foremost through the requirement in the Minimum Wage Directive for Member States to select their own ‘indicative reference values’ to guide them in their assessment of adequacy. Nearly all Member States with statutory minimum wages that have transposed the directive so far have opted for a certain percentage of average and/or median wages as a reference value. The pursuit of these targets (immediately or over time) seems to be the main driver of the larger uprates witnessed for 2026. Nevertheless, some countries have extended the timeline for reaching these values or postponed their uprates, including Estonia, Hungary, Ireland and Romania. Meanwhile, most of the countries that have not yet fully transposed the directive and/or do not base their increases on indicative reference values, or that have achieved certain targets already, feature among those with the lowest increases (beyond inflation) in national minimum wages in 2026.