Promoting social cohesion and convergence

Praćenje konvergencije u Europskoj uniji: Gledanje unatrag za kretanje unaprijed – uzlazna konvergencija za vrijeme krize

Flagship report
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27 travnja 2022
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20 prosinca 2021
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Executive summary in 22 languages
Preuzimanje
Autor(i): 
Mascherini, Massimiliano; Carstens, Jens; Maftei, Anamaria; Farrell, Sarah

Osnovni pokazatelji

  • Gospodarska kriza (2008. – 2013.) imala je znatan negativni utjecaj na uzlaznu konvergenciju u državama članicama EU-a. Iako se gospodarska konvergencija brzo ponovno uspostavila, silazna divergencija u područjima zaposlenja i životnih uvjeta prevladavala je do 2013. i na taj način je istaknula duboku povezanost socijalne i gospodarske konvergencije.
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  • Gospodarska kriza (2008. – 2013.) imala je znatan negativni utjecaj na uzlaznu konvergenciju u državama članicama EU-a. Iako se gospodarska konvergencija brzo ponovno uspostavila, silazna divergencija u područjima zaposlenja i životnih uvjeta prevladavala je do 2013. i na taj način je istaknula duboku povezanost socijalne i gospodarske konvergencije.
  • Usprkos tome što su mnogi socijalni pokazatelji počeli uzlazno konvergirati tijekom razdoblja oporavka od 2014. do 2019., posljedica krize bile su nejednakosti među geografskim regijama. Dok središnja i istočna Europa nastavljaju snažnu konvergenciju prema vodećoj sjeverozapadnoj regiji, južna Europa sve više zaostaje u socijalnom i gospodarskom pogledu.
  • Uzlazna konvergencija po pitanju kvalitete upravljanja i institucija među državama članicama EU-a uglavnom je nedostajala u razdoblju od 2008. do 2019. S obzirom na krizu uzrokovanu bolešću COVID-19, konvergencija po pitanju institucijske kvalitete bit će važan način prijelaza gospodarske konvergencije u trajnu socijalnu konvergenciju u istočnoj Europi i poboljšanje oba trenda u južnoj Europi.
  • Snažni odgovori politike na pandemiju na razini EU-a i država članica spriječili su štetniji i neravnomjerniji učinak krize na tržište rada i životne uvjete. Međutim, budući da kriza uzrokovana bolešću COVID-19 još nije posve završila, ključno je održavati ova nastojanja politike, posebice u kontekstu digitalne i zelene tranzicije gdje su odgovarajući alati politike nužni za sprječavanje nove podjele između sjevera i istoka te juga i zapada.
  • Potpuna provedba plana NextGenerationEU bit će od velike važnosti, a konvergencija između država članica EU-a ovisit će o tome koliko su državni planovi oporavka usklađeni s planom na razini EU-a. Želja vlada da se usredotoče na nadnacionalne prioritete prilika je za umanjivanje nejednakosti nastalih uslijed pandemije uzrokovane bolešću COVID-19. Posebno je važna koordinacija na razini EU-a.
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Sažetak

Uzlazna konvergencija središnja je težnja projekata EU-a. Države članice i njihovi građani pristupaju Uniji jer očekuju da će članstvo dovesti do uravnoteženog gospodarskog i socijalnog napretka u državama. Povećane nejednakosti između država članica koje su nastale tijekom gospodarske krize 2008Read more

Uzlazna konvergencija središnja je težnja projekata EU-a. Države članice i njihovi građani pristupaju Uniji jer očekuju da će članstvo dovesti do uravnoteženog gospodarskog i socijalnog napretka u državama. Povećane nejednakosti između država članica koje su nastale tijekom gospodarske krize 2008. – 2013. mogu se smatrati kršenjem obećanja EU-a i na taj način mogu potaknuti nezadovoljstvo i raspad. Ovo izvješće rezultat je Eurofoundovog istraživanja nadzora konvergencije u EU-u, koje je započelo 2017. Njime se opisuje promjenjiva dinamika uzlazne konvergencije u razdoblju od 2008. do 2019., ispituju se kratkoročni učinci bolesti COVID-19 na europska gospodarstva i društva, kao i njene posljedice za konvergenciju te se razmatraju dugoročni učinci pandemije i buduće uzlazne gospodarske i socijalne konvergencije u Europi.

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  • Izvješće

    Last updated date: 
    26 sij 2022
    Broj stranica: 
    120
    Referentni broj: 
    EF21008
    ISBN: 
    978-92-897-2237-7
    Kataložni broj: 
    TJ-01-21-504-EN-N
    DOI: 
    10.2806/78744
    Permalink: 
    eurofound.link/ef21008
    Catalogue info

    Praćenje konvergencije u Europskoj uniji: Gledanje unatrag za kretanje unaprijed – uzlazna konvergencija za vrijeme krize

    Autor(i): 
    Mascherini, Massimiliano; Carstens, Jens; Maftei, Anamaria; Farrell, Sarah
    Topics: 
    Social policies; Promicanje socijalne kohezije i konvergencije; European Pillar of Social Rights; COVID-19; Praćenje konvergencije u Europskoj uniji; Inequality

    Oblici

    Upućivanje na ovu publikaciju: 

    Eurofound (2021), Monitoring convergence in the European Union: Looking backwards to move forward – Upward convergence through crises, Challenges and prospects in the EU series, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.

  • Executive summary

    Referentni broj: 
    EF21008EN1
    Catalogue info

    Praćenje konvergencije u Europskoj uniji: Gledanje unatrag za kretanje unaprijed – uzlazna konvergencija za vrijeme krize

    Autor(i): 
    Eurofound

    Dostupno za preuzimanje na 22 jezika

    Preuzimanje

  • Working paper

  • Tables and graphs

    The flagship report contains the following list of tables and figures.

    List of tables

    Table 1: Overview of indicators
    Table 2: Drivers of employment in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table 3: Drivers of employment growth in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table 4: Summary of economic convergence trends in sigma, delta and beta convergence and at the regional level
    Table 5: Summary of social convergence trends in sigma, delta and beta convergence and at the regional level
    Table 6: Summary of institutional convergence trends in sigma, delta and beta convergence

    Table A1: Drivers of employment in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table A2: Drivers of employment growth in the EU (panel analysis)
    Table A3: Impact of unemployment changes on GDP per capita (regression coefficients), EU27, 2000–2019

    List of figures

    Figure 1: The three dimensions of convergence
    Figure 2: Sigma and delta convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 3: Unconditional beta convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 4: Regional quintile clusters of GDP per capita in PPS in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 5: Sigma and delta convergence in disposable household income per capita (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 6: Unconditional beta convergence in disposable household income per capita (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 7: Regional quintile clusters of disposable household income per capita in PPS in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 8: Sigma and delta convergence in income inequality (income quintile share ratio), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 9: Unconditional beta convergence in income inequality (income quintile share ratio), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 10: Sigma and delta convergence in monthly minimum wage (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 11: Unconditional beta convergence in monthly minimum wage (PPS), 2008–2019
    Figure 12: Sigma and delta convergence in the employment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 13: Unconditional beta convergence in the employment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 14: Regional quintile clusters of the employment rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 15: Sigma and delta convergence in the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 16: Unconditional beta convergence in the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 17: Regional quintile clusters of the unemployment rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 18: Sigma and delta convergence in the gender employment gap (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 19: Unconditional beta convergence in the gender employment gap (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 20: Regional quintile clusters of the gender employment gap in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 21: Sigma and delta convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 22: Unconditional beta convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 23: Regional quintile clusters of the youth NEET rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 24: Sigma and delta convergence in the early school leavers rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 25: Unconditional beta convergence in the early school leavers rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 26: Regional quintile clusters of the early school leavers rate in 2008 and 2019 and cluster mobility from 2008 to 2019, EU NUTS 2
    Figure 27: Sigma and delta convergence in the AROPE rate (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 28: Unconditional beta convergence in the AROPE rate (%), EU27, 2008–2013 and 2013–2019
    Figure 29: Sigma and delta convergence in unmet medical needs (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 30: Unconditional beta convergence in unmet medical needs (%), EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 31: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI rule of law, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 32: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI rule of law, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 33: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI government effectiveness, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 34: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI government effectiveness, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 35: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI regulatory quality, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 36: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI regulatory quality, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 37: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI voice and accountability, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 38: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI voice and accountability, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 39: Sigma and delta convergence in the WGI control of corruption, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 40: Unconditional beta convergence in the WGI control of corruption, EU27, 2008–2019
    Figure 41: Sigma and delta convergence in the Ease of Doing Business score, EU27, 2010–2019
    Figure 42: Unconditional beta convergence in the Ease of Doing Business score, EU27, 2010–2019
    Figure 43: Regional clusters of the European Quality of Government Index score (EQI), EU NUTS 1 and 2, 2010 and 2017
    Figure 44: Employment rates in the previous year and annual growth rates by EU Member State, 2000–2019
    Figure 45: Employment growth in southern and central and eastern countries relative to western/northern Europe (regression coefficients plot)
    Figure 46: Summary of the regional leaders and laggards in the social dimension and cluster mobility in the economic dimension, EU NUTS 2, 2008–2019
    Figure 47: Relationship between GDP and unemployment in 2008–2009 (growth rates), EU27
    Figure 48: Relationship between GDP and unemployment in 2019–2020 (growth rates), EU27
    Figure 49: Actual versus predicted unemployment rate in 2020 (%), EU27
    Figure 50: SURE loans and the unemployment gap in 2020, EU27
    Figure 51: Unweighted average employment rate and projections to meet the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan 2030 target (%), EU27
    Figure 52: Unweighted average youth NEET rate and projections to meet the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan 2030 target (%), EU27
    Figure 53: Sigma convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2013–2020
    Figure 54: Change in GDP per capita (in PPS) by Member State (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 55: Unconditional beta convergence in GDP per capita (PPS), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 56: Percentage change in GDP per capita (in PPS), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 57: Sigma convergence in the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2013–2021 (monthly data: January 2020–May 2021)
    Figure 58: Change in unemployment rate by Member State (percentage points), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 59: Unconditional beta convergence of the unemployment rate (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 60: Percentage point change in the unemployment rate, EU NUTS 2, 2019–2020
    Figure 61: Sigma convergence in the activity rate (%), EU27, 2013–2020 (quarterly data: Q4 2019–Q4 2020)
    Figure 62: Sigma convergence in labour market slack (%), EU27, 2013–2020 (quarterly data: Q4 2019–Q4 2020)
    Figure 63: Unconditional beta convergence in labour market slack (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 64: Estimated change in the at-risk-of-poverty rate, EU, 2019–2020
    Figure 65: Sigma convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2013–2020 (quarterly data: Q4 2019–Q4 2020)
    Figure 66: Unconditional beta convergence in the youth NEET rate (%), EU27, 2019–2020
    Figure 67: Degree of plausibility (on a scale of 1–10) of the health recovery scenarios as assessed by Eurofound experts
    Figure 68: Possible economic recovery scenarios
    Figure 69: Expected speed of economic recovery, EU27
    Figure 70: Experts’ opinions on the expected economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic (on a scale of 0–100)

Istraživanja provedena prije datuma povlačenja Ujedinjene Kraljevine iz Europske unije, odnosno prije 31. siječnja 2020., i naknadno objavljena mogu sadržavati podatke koji se odnose na 28 država članica EU-a. Nakon tog datuma istraživanja obuhvaćaju samo 27 država članica EU-a (tj. EU28 bez UK-a) ako nije drugačije navedeno.

Part of the series

  • Challenges and prospects in the EU

    Eurofound’s Flagship report series 'Challenges and prospects in the EU' comprise research reports that contain the key results of multiannual research activities and incorporate findings from different related research projects. Flagship reports are the major output of each of Eurofound’s strategic areas of intervention and have as their objective to contribute to current policy debates.

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